Morning Brew April 13 2023

Good Morning,

The US Dollar is weaker over easter and after the weaker CPI while equities are hovering at relatively high levels looking for the next driver.

The probability of a rate hike at the next meeting is at 70 percent while the year end rate is seen at half a percent below the current levels. Our Steen Jakobsen sees yesterday`s CPI as more hawkish than  most, as the “Powell CPI” which is cpi minus energy minus housing rose to 5,8 pc - not what Chairman Powell needs to see and does not believe in rate cuts this year.

The two year is at near 4% and the 10 at 3.4%. The USD Index is trading at 101.55 at support. If we break lower, 100.80 would be a level to watch before 100. EURUSD is trading at 1.0980 and GBPUSD 1.2490 while USDJPY remains higher at 133,30 Gold and Silver are at 2019 and 25.45 while Bitcoin broke above 30k for the first time since June 2022.

Ahead of the real start of the earning season, the US 500 is neat 4100 at 4090, the Tech 100 12870 and the GER40 15700. We need a break above the recent highs for serious momentum and it will be interesting to see if the earning season is able to provide that. Japanese SoftBank Group Corp has is selling most all of its remaining shares in Alibaba the Financial Times reports while Chinas Exports came higher in March than expected.

Moving Forward, we are expecting the EU Industrial production at 11, the US PPI and the usual employment data at 14:30.

As volumes are still low do to many traders taking an easter break, swings are likely to be larger than usual.

Good Morning,

The US Dollar is weaker over easter and after the weaker CPI while equities are hovering at relatively high levels looking for the next driver.

The probability of a rate hike at the next meeting is at 70 percent while the year end rate is seen at half a percent below the current levels. Our Steen Jakobsen sees yesterday`s CPI as more hawkish than  most, as the “Powell CPI” which is cpi minus energy minus housing rose to 5,8 pc - not what Chairman Powell needs to see and does not believe in rate cuts this year.

More from the Fed minutes: Some FOMC officials considered whether to hold rates last month given banking sector uncertainty, but said stabilizing actions by regulators had helped ease financial stress.

The two year is at near 4% and the 10 at 3.4%. The USD Index is trading at 101.55 at support. If we break lower, 100.80 would be a level to watch before 100. EURUSD is trading at 1.0980 and GBPUSD 1.2490 while USDJPY remains higher at 133,30 Gold and Silver are at 2019 and 25.45 while Bitcoin broke above 30k for the first time since June 2022.

Ahead of the real start of the earning season, the US 500 is neat 4100 at 4090, the Tech 100 12870 and the GER40 15700. We need a break above the recent highs for serious momentum and it will be interesting to see if the earning season is able to provide that. Japanese SoftBank Group Corp has is selling most all of its remaining shares in Alibaba the Financial Times reports while Chinas Exports came higher in March than expected.

Moving Forward, we are expecting the EU Industrial production at 11, the US PPI and the usual employment data at 14:30.

As volumes are still low do to many traders taking an easter break, swings are likely to be larger than usual.

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