Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew August 22 2022
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk Off ahead of Jackson Hole
Good Morning,
US Yields rose on Friday and hit 3% for the 10 year, causing Equities to fall and the USD To gain.
The USD Index exceeded 108 and UD Indexes fell between 0.9% and 2%, growth stocks fell the most. Nvidia lost almost 5%. Ark almost 6% a
The US500 trades at 4205, the Wallstreet 30 at 33560, the Tech 100 at 13153. The German Benchmark is testing the 13500.
EURUSD is approaching Parity again at currently 1.0023, GBP 1.1820, USDJPY 37.11 and Gold and Silver 1742 and 19.00. Bitcoin dropped to 21400.
A report sees a significant reduction in short positions as the cause for the recent rally in stocks, as the GS Basket of most shorted stocks declined significantly.
Inflation in essentials is far above 25% in the US acc to a calculation by Charles Schwab, is is based on Utilities, Gasoline, Food at home and electricity.
Credit Suisse reshuffles it`s management again and appoints Dixit Joshi as chief financial officer and Francesca McDonagh as COO
China cut its benchmark rate and lowered the mortgage reference rate
Nervousness should prevail with sharp moves likely. The Key event of the week should be the Powell speech on Friday but I would also expect comments from central bankers ahead of the actual event as we have seen the last few times there was a crucial scheduled Fed event.
Economic Data:
Tuesday: International PMI through the day, EU consumer Confidence, US New Home Sales
Wednesday: US Durable Goods Orders
Thursday: German GDP, IFO, US GDP,
Friday: US GDP, Powell Speaks at Jackson Hole
Earnings.
Tuesday: JD.com, PetroChina
Wednesday: NVIDIA, Salesforce, , Snowflake
Thursday: VMware Inc
Friday: Industrial Bank
Expiries
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