Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew February 16 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: A Calm Day?
Good Morning,
Retail Sales came better than expected and together with strong earnings the mood in the stock markets was and is quite good. US Indexes rose between 0.1% for the Dow and 0.9% for the Nasdaq, strong earnings came from Roblox whose stock gained 26%, AirBnB up 13% and Roku up 14 after market close. The US 500 is up almost 8% this week, the US 30 0.75 and the US tech 3.4%.
Volumes were quite low at 10% below the 20 day average.
Interest Rates expectations initially jumped higher after the Retail Sales number but receded back to 4.62 for the 2 year Benchmark, the USD Index topped 104 before falling to 103.83 now.
EURUSD is trading at 1.0695, GBPUSD 1.2030 and USDJPY 134. Gold and Silver are trading low at 1835 and 21.64.
Todays agenda is rather thin with tier one data but there are several Fed Speakers with potentially important clues on the rate path.
The key question will be of we see two or three more rate hikes by the fed this year, any clues will be significant.
Thursday
Data: US PPI Manufacturing,, Philly Fed Business Index, and the initial Jpobless claims,Feds Mester and Bullard speak
Earnings: Air Liquide, Crocs, Hyatt, Dropbox,
Friday
Data: UK Retail Sales, France CPI US Import Prices
Earnings: John Deere Mercedes, Natwest
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
KCH3 will expire 16 Feb at 16:00 GMT
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Expiring CFDs
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COCOANYMAR23, COTTONMAR23 will expire 29 Feb at 16:00 GMT
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