Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew June 15 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Hawkish Pause - ECB ahead as well as Expiry
ECB Retail sales ahead today, Quarterly Expiry tomorrow.
The Fed brought it`s expected hawkish pause. There was no change in rates but gave a relatively hawkish view for the next few months. A full hike is prices in by September and by December we are 15 basis points above the current level. This is not yes in line with the two hikes the Fed indicated meaning the market continues to remain more dovish that the Fed indicates – so far without reason.
Ahead of the ECB rate decision markets are ambivalent, precious metals are under pressure, yields rise along with the USD Index - stocks are mixed.
The S&P and the Nasdaq gained by 0.08% and 0.39% while the Dow -0.7%, Tesla closed negatively for the first time after 13 sessions while Nvidia and Broadcom soared by 4% both and overall Volumes were high at 20% above average.
The Dax hit a new all time high yesterday and is holding up quite nicely after the US Rate decision, the GER40 is 16280.
In Switzerland the CEO of Logitech announced his resignation sending shares ten percent lower.
FX saw decent moves: EURUSD is holding above the 1.08 at 1.0808, GBPUSD is trading at 1.2635 and USDJPY soared to 141. Gold fell to 1932 and Silver is 2% lower at 23.46.
The ECB should hike by 25 basis points today and continue to do so at least once more.
Watch the Yen as there is a clear expectation the Bank of Japan and the Government will take action if the JPY loses more value and analysts see the line in the sand at 145 Yen against the USD. The BoJ will announce rates over night but no change is expected with full conviction.
In China both industrial output as well as the retail sales disappointed and raises the expectation for government support.
For today, the ECB aside (14:15 is the rate announcement and the press conference 30 minutes later) US retail sales at 14:30 will be watched closely.
We are as of now trading July hike and it`s probability unless we find a new narrative to drive markets.
Thursday June 15
Japan Trade
China Retail Sales
ECB Refinancing Rate
US Retail Sales MM
Earnings: Adobe, Kroger, Jabil, Halma
Friday June 16
Italy CPI
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
ADM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
BPM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
DXM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 09:00 GMT
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MSFM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
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