Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew June 23 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning
Risk sentiment prevails after Powell!
The Nasdaq ended at a record high, lifted by big tech, as investors shifted their focus to growth stocks. The Dow gained 0.2%, the S&P 0.5 and the Nasdaq 0.8% . Microsoft hit 2 Trillion in Market cap for the first time ever. The volatility Index Vix fell to 16.66 after reaching 22 on Monday. Bitcoin recovered from a five-month low to 34000 in volatile trading, the low was below 30,000.
The USD Index trades at 91.87, Gold and Silver are little moved at 27.90 and 1780, EURSUD reclaimed the 1.19 GBPUSD is at 1.3920. Silver remains supported by the 200 day moving average.
Brazil's real hit a one-year high on a central bank more hawkish than expected.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the Fed was looking for a broad and inclusive recovery: "We will not raise interest rates pre-emptively because we fear the possible onset of inflation. We will wait for evidence of actual inflation or other imbalances” He expects the current high level of inflation to recede.
Japan's factory activity expanded at the slowest pace in 4 months with the Jibun PMI at 51.5. The Australian PMI also fell boding ill for the German, French, UK EU and US ones being released later.
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll | Unit |
23 Jun 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | Mfg PMI Flash | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
23 Jun 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | Services PMI Flash | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
23 Jun 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | Comp PMI Flash | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
23 Jun 2021 | 02:30 | Japan | Jibun Bank Mfg PMI Flash | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
23 Jun 2021 | 09:15 | France | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Jun | 59.0 | Index (diffusion) |
23 Jun 2021 | 09:15 | France | Markit Serv Flash PMI | Jun | 59.0 | Index (diffusion) |
23 Jun 2021 | 09:15 | France | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jun | 59.0 | Index (diffusion) |
23 Jun 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Jun | 63.4 | Index (diffusion) |
23 Jun 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | Markit Service Flash PMI | Jun | 55.0 | Index (diffusion) |
23 Jun 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jun | 57.4 | Index (diffusion) |
23 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Jun | 62.1 | Index (diffusion) |
23 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Serv Flash PMI | Jun | 57.5 | Index (diffusion) |
23 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jun | 58.8 | Index (diffusion) |
23 Jun 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | Flash Composite PMI | Jun | 63.0 | Index (diffusion) |
23 Jun 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | Flash Manufacturing PMI | Jun | 64.0 | Index (diffusion) |
23 Jun 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | Flash Services PMI | Jun | 63.0 | Index (diffusion) |
23 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Current Account | Q1 | -207.0B | USD |
23 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Retail Sales MM | Apr | -5.1% | Percent |
23 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM | Apr | -5.0% | Percent |
23 Jun 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
23 Jun 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Mfg PMI Flash | Jun | 61.5 | Index (diffusion) |
23 Jun 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Svcs PMI Flash | Jun | 70.0 | Index (diffusion) |
23 Jun 2021 | 16:00 | United States | New Home Sales-Units | May | 0.875M | Number of |
24 Jun 2021 | 06:30 | Netherlands | GDP Final SA QQ | Q1 | -0.5% | Percent |
24 Jun 2021 | 06:30 | Netherlands | GDP Final NSA YY | Q1 | Percent | |
24 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Import Prices MM | May | Percent | |
24 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Import Prices YY | May | 11.3% | Percent |
24 Jun 2021 | 08:45 | France | Business Climate Mfg | Jun | 110 | Net balance |
24 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | Spain | GDP QQ | Q1 | -0.5% | Percent |
24 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | Spain | GDP YY | Q1 | -4.3% | Percent |
24 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Germany | Ifo Business Climate New | Jun | 100.1 | Index |
24 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Germany | Ifo Curr Conditions New | Jun | 97.5 | Index |
24 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Germany | Ifo Expectations New | Jun | 103.5 | Index |
24 Jun 2021 | 13:00 | United Kingdom | BOE Bank Rate | Jun | 0.10% | Percent |
24 Jun 2021 | 13:00 | United Kingdom | GB BOE QE Corp | Jun | 20B | GBP |
24 Jun 2021 | 13:00 | United Kingdom | BOE MPC Vote Hike | Jun | 0 | Number of |
24 Jun 2021 | 13:00 | United Kingdom | BOE MPC Vote Unchanged | Jun | 9 | Number of |
24 Jun 2021 | 13:00 | United Kingdom | BOE MPC Vote Cut | Jun | 0 | Number of |
24 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Durable Goods | May | 2.7% | Percent |
24 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Durables Ex-Transport | May | 0.7% | Percent |
24 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | GDP Final | Q1 | 6.4% | Percent |
24 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | GDP Deflator Final | Q1 | 4.3% | Percent |
24 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Core PCE Prices Fnal | Q1 | 2.5% | Percent |
24 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 19 Jun, w/e | 380k | Person |
24 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Cont Jobless Clm | 12 Jun, w/e | 3.458M | Person |
25 Jun 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | Imports | May | NZD | |
25 Jun 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | Trade Balance | May | NZD | |
25 Jun 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | Annual Trade Balance | May | NZD | |
25 Jun 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | Exports | May | NZD |
(refinitiv)
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