Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew March 17 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk on towards the weekend - will it hold?
Good Morning,
The ECB hiked by 50 Basis points yesterday and displayed confidence the banking system while in the US several banks joined ranks and extended loans to First Republic. First Republic could gain 10% at the close of the day after heavy losses. In extended trading First Republic fell again.
Equities are trading higher overall. The Dow rose 371.98 points, or 1.17%, to 32,246.55, the S&P 500 gained 68.35 points, or 1.76% the GER 40 is now at 15040 and 2.6% than yesterday’s low.
Meta and Snap also rose sharply on a possible ban of TikTok in the US:
US 2 year yields are at 4.15 and the USD Index is back near 104. With EURUSD at 1.0650, GBPUSD 1.2160 and 132.94. USDCHF is trading at 0.9265.
Gold and Silver remain high at 1928 and 21.90. Oil prices rebounded app. 1% after a meeting between Saudi Arabia and Russia calmed markets
Sanofi will cut the price for it`s insulin by almost 80% in 2024.
Today we expect little in terms of key economic data and will focus will be on sentiment in risk. Next weeks FOMC meeting is the next big thing to know more about the Feds view on inflation and the need to act, also the blackout period for the Fed will end and we will see comments from fed speakers on the turmoil again.
Friday 17 March
- US Industrial production (Feb)
- US university of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (Feb)
- UK BoE/Ipsos Inflation next 12 months (Feb)
- Japan Tertiary industry activity (Jan)
Earnings on watch this week:
- Friday: Vonovia, Longfor, CMOC Group Lt
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