Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
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Morning BrewNovember 23 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Thanksgiving Today, expect low liquidity
Good Morning
Confusion around the OPEC Meeting that was initially scheduled for the Weekend has been postponed to November 30th and this caused oil to fall and pulling Gold and Silver lower as well.
Equities were friendly, Durable goods orders fell more than expected and Initial Jobless claims as well as the University of Michigan Sentiment were broadly in line – sparking hopes the US economy can avoid a recession on the one hand and end the rate hike cycle at the same time. Indexes gain around half a percentage point in low volumes of only 80% of the average.
The US500 could break above the 4550 to trade at 4560, the US Tech 100 Nas breached the 16000 and the Ger40 is trying to do the same at currently 15950. The USD Index is at 103.88 while 10 Year Yields are at 4.40.
EURUSD briefly fell below 1.09yesterday but retook the level to trade at 1.0908, GBPUSD is 1.2509 and USDJPY 149.06. Gold and Silver are 19950 and 23.65. Ole Hansen pointed out that in the last few years, Gold and Silver have usually had a very strong December, with Gold rising 4% on average in the past 5 Decembers and Silver even more than 7. Implied Volatility is fairly low: Gold one month 11.05 with the 200d MA at 12.38, Silver 23.05 at with the 200d MA at 23.35.
An at the money call in Silver until year end costs app. 75 cents while a move of 7% would put the price of Silver at 25.30 – if you believe that history rhymes, this could be an interesting one.
In the Headlines:
- Chinese Wealth Manager goes belly up with USD 64 bio in liabilities
- A Hostage/Prisoner exchange will happen tomorrow at the earliest.
- A Reuters poll shows analysts to be moderately optimistic, seeing the S&P 500 at 4700 in December 24, the STOXX 600 is seen to rise to 475.
- Gert Wilders is the big winner of the Dutch election and could be the next PM.
International PMI will be watched today along with the rate decisiona from Sweden and Turkey but with the US off, expect little volumes and trade carefully
Key Events
Thusday
- Data Germany, France, UK, EU PMI, Swedish &Turkish Rate Decisions, THANKSGIVING
- Earnings
Friday
- Data Japan CPI, German GDP, IFO, Canada Retail Sales, US PMI, Black Friday
- Earnings
Expiries
NGZ3 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 08:30 GMT
Expiring CFDs
NATGASUSDEC23 will expire 24 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
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