Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew September 19 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Markets Hibernating Yesterday but the Elephant in the Room Ahead


Good Morning

Markets seem to he in a holding position for the rate decisions starting tomorrow night and going into Friday.

Yields remain high with the 10 Year US at 4.30% and the USD Index is trading at 105.19. EURUSD is at 1.0677, GBPUSD 1.2375 and USDJPY 147.78 – clearly in intervention territory.

Kim put out a summary of the key levels in EURUSD, GBPUSD and the USD Index, EURUSD should hold above 1.0635.

US Equities basically refused movement yesterday and the three major indexes closed within 0.1% from Friday. Key mover was ARM which fell 4.5% after a broker downgrade. Asian shares were under pressure in the night as worries about developments in the Chinese property segment caused nervousness – also Japanese traders were apparently nervous about a report that TSMC saw lower demand. The report was from Friday but widely ignored. Soc Gen announced its strategy yesterday and found little love, shares lost 12% pulling European Banks lower.

China's holdings of US Treasuries fell for the fourth straight month in July, reaching the lowest level since June 2009. AllianceBernstein's Matthew Sheridan said it was a good time to buy the 10 year Bond now as he sees Yields falling nearly 2% . 

Right now, the US 500 is trading at 4450, the GER40 15695 and the US Tech 100 NAS 15202.

Looking ahead, there are several elephants in the room:

  • Rate decisions starting with China over night, followed by the US tomorrow evening
  • Labor disputes with the UAW threatening to extend the strikes to more facilities
    The current strikes have caused the most hours lost since the year 2000
  • The US Government Lockdown by October if no solution is found.
  • The restart of student debt repayments from October.

The big question will be how much money households will have to spend on consumption and that figure should decline due the above. We are also seeing a slowdown in the housing market as any changes to long term mortgages would cause higher rates to apply.

For today, EU Inflation, US Housing Data and the Canadian CPI are the key events, Oil and commodities are generally in focus after the strong increase in Oil to the highest level since November. Gold bounced from the 1,900. Range bound 1,900-1,950 and Silver held it`s decline at above 22.15 support. Could bounce to 23.50, copper looks to test the 382.

Key Events ahead:

Tuesday
- Data: EU HICP, US Housing Starts, CA CPI, Crude Stocks

Wednesday
- Data  Japan Trade, China Rates, UK CPI, US FOMC Rate decision & press conference

Thursday
- Data Australia GDP.  Swiss Sweden, Norway, UK and Turkey rate decision, US Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed and Home Sales,

Friday
- Data Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales, International PMI

Expiries

Physically Settled Futures

  • CLV3 will expire 20 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
  • PLV3 will expire 21 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT

Expiring CFDs

  • PLATINUMOCT23 will expire 20 Sep 2023 at 08:00 GMT
  • AUS200SEP23 will expire 21 Sep 2023 at 12:00 GMT

Erik

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.