Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Summary: Markets were upside down yesterday as Pfizer made a breakthrough announcement of results showing 90% effective Covid-19 vaccine significantly exceeding previous expectations of 60-70%. S&P 500 equity futures jumped 3% led by gains in energy and financial stocks while Nasdaq 100 futures were selling off hard as investors are readjusting their outlook for the technology sector but also rising yields which were evident across the board. The higher US yields also negatively impacted safe-haven currencies such as JPY and CHF. Another market that was negatively impacted by the vaccine news was gold down more than 4% responding to rising real yields and the potential lower fiscal impulse coming from governments on back of an effective vaccine. Crude oil did not respond to the same degree as energy stocks highlighting an interesting disconnect as crude oil futures obviously reflect the true impact from the vaccine news. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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