Trump Wins, Yields Rise - What Does It Mean for Your Investments?

Trump Wins, Yields Rise - What Does It Mean for Your Investments?

US Election 2024 5 minutes to read
Althea Spinozzi

Head of Fixed Income Strategy

The Bottom Line:

A Trump presidency creates both risks and opportunities. Focus on domestic sectors, keep a defensive position in fixed income, and consider hedging strategies to protect against market swings.

Market Reaction to Trump’s Return

With Trump’s win, U.S. Treasury yields have surged, with the 10-year reaching 4.46% amid expectations of fiscal stimulus and deregulation. Equity markets have reacted positively, with S&P 500 futures up 2.3% and the Russell 2000 jumping 6%, as investors bet on a domestic-focused economic agenda. Meanwhile, a stronger dollar has pressured gold prices and weighed on international equities, especially in markets vulnerable to trade tensions and defense spending changes.

Key Implications for Global Trade, USD, and Oil:

  • Trade Tensions: Renewed tariffs or restrictions on China could disrupt global supply chains, affecting multinationals and increasing market volatility.
  • U.S. Dollar Strength: Initially supportive for importers, a stronger dollar may challenge exporters and firms with foreign revenues, especially if inflation expectations rise.
  • Energy Markets: Trump’s pro-fossil-fuel stance and potential deregulation may boost U.S. oil production, pressuring global oil prices unless demand surges.

Impact on Equity Markets: U.S. and Global View:

Under Trump, sectors like energy, defense, and small caps may benefit, aligning with an “America First” agenda that prioritizes deregulation and domestic spending. In contrast, multinational companies with global operations, especially in tech and consumer goods, could face challenges from trade policies and a stronger dollar, which raises costs abroad. Emerging markets reliant on U.S. trade might also see heightened volatility.

Risks and Opportunities: Navigating This New Landscape

Key Risks:

  • Rising Yields: Higher Treasury yields signal inflation risks, which could erode fixed-income returns.
  • Trade-Related Volatility: Companies reliant on global supply chains, such as in tech and manufacturing, may face headwinds.
  • Sectoral Shifts: Energy and traditional industries may gain, while renewable sectors could struggle.

Key Opportunities:

  • Domestic-Focused Stocks: Small caps with U.S.-centric operations, like those in the SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (R2US), could see benefits from pro-American policies.
  • Energy Gains: Deregulation may boost fossil fuel stocks; investors might consider the iShares Oil & Gas Exploration & Production UCITS ETF (IOGP).
  • Defense and Infrastructure: Defense spending and infrastructure investments could rise. For broad industrial exposure, the Lyxor MSCI World Industrials TR UCITS ETF (WIND) includes global aerospace and defense firms.

Strategies to Protect Your Portfolio:

  • Diversify Across Asset Classes: Balancing stocks with bonds or real estate can offer stability. Rising bond yields suggest short-duration bonds, like the iShares Treasury Bond 1-3yr UCITS ETF (IBTA), may be more resilient.
  • Hedge with Precious Metals: Gold remains a valuable long-term inflation hedge despite short-term USD strength. The ZKB Gold UCITS ETF (ZGLDUS) is a solid option for UCITS-compliant investors.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.