Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
I don’t show it much but I do look at the Ichimoku Cloud and how markets are moving relative to the Cloud.
For S&P500 at current levels there are a lot of resistance levels where fighting between Bulls and Bears should be expected i.e. volatility and possibly market turns. S&P 500 closed above the 200 SMA yesterday and is just trading at the Cloud top resistance.
The 100 Daily SMA and the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the January-February bear market is around 4,540 both offering resistance. However, the big question is whether RSI can closed the day above 60. If yes, we are in short term Bullish sentiment.
US session closing will be very interesting and can give a strong indication of the direction next few weeks.
Nasdaq 100 is testing the lower Cloud area. Contrary to S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 is well below 200 SMA.