Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: DAX/GER40 finding support at 15,246/15,240 which could prove to be pivotal for a correction or extended uptrend. Strong indications of a correction but the trigger has not yet materialised
DAX: 15,246 seems to be a key support for DAX . 15,240 on the GER40 cfd. Now having bounced twice from the 15,246/15,240 level they have traded sideways out of the rising wedge like pattern (Blue rising tend lines) with 15,658 as the peak.
If closing below 15,246/15,240 next support at 14.906
Those are the levels to look out for short-term.
As mentioned repeatedly the uptrends in European markets are stretched and a correction should be expected. RSI showing divergence supporting that scenario but the igniting catalyst has not yet occurred.
A close below the 15,246/15,240 is likely to be just that.
However, if buyers can manage to lift the DAX/GER40 above 15,658/15,656 the uptrend could get renewed energy and be extended.
Minor resistance at around 15,736 before all-time highs at 16,290.
Weekly chart on the DAX has formed a rising wedge like pattern and with the divergence on the weekly RSI there are indications of a correction. But the confirmation of it unfolding has not yet materialized. A close below 15,240 could be just that.