Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
EURUSD has broken bullish out of its sideways range on back of the CPI numbers released yesterday. EURUSD hasn’t moved far after the breakout however, being rejected at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at 1.0360, coinciding with the medium-term falling trend line and 55 SMA. A strong resistance area.
RSI is still showing negative sentiment and needs to close above 60 to reverse that.
Today EURUSD seems to have another go at the resistance. If EURUSD can push through those resistances, there is room up till around 1.06. Possibly 1.0790.
If it fails once again and is pushed back below 1.0280 it could be range bound in past few weeks range for a couple of more weeks.
The longer-term picture on EURUSD outlined in previous analysis remains intact. EURUSD trend is down and parity is likely to be tested later in 2022. To reverse that a close above 1.15 is needed.