Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
EURUSD is trading in a falling channel bouncing from around the 200 daily Moving Average. Currently testing the upper falling trendline a correction to the 0.382 retracement at 1.0960 could be seen before EURUSD is likely to resume downtrend.
However, a close above 1.0961 and the 55 Moving Average, which will provide resistance, could result in a spike higher to the 0.618 retracement at 1.1081
RSI is showing negative sentiment with no divergence indicating likely lower EURUSD levels.
If EURUSD takes out last week’s low at around 1.0766 support area at 1.0693-1.0635 is likely to be tested
The Dollar Index seems to have initiated a correction. A correction that could push the Index down to the 0.382 retracement at 102.41.
The 55 and 100 Moving Averages will provide support around that level, and RSI is showing positive sentiment with no divergence indicating likely higher Dollar Index levels after a correction.