Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Update - JPY pairs on the move: AUDJPY, CADJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY, NZDJPY & USDJPY
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: JPY pairs are on the move nearing key resistance levels.
Today's Saxo Market Call podcast.
Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team
Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team
AUDJPY seems to be trying to have another go at the key resistance at around 93.00. Resistance at around 93 is strong with both 100 daily coming down (below93.00) and the 200 SMA providing resistance.
RSI is showing positive sentiment indicating higher AUDJPY however, and a close above 93.00 is likely to lead to a rally to next resistance at round 95.40.
For AUDJPY to reverse this bullish scenario a close below 90. Is likely to initiate a sell-off down to strong support at around 87.90
CADJPY has broken bullish out its falling wedge like pattern and has established a short-term uptrend. The Pair looks set for a test of the 0.382 retracement and resistance at around 101.00.
RSI is close to switch to positive sentiment (if closing above 60).
A CADJPY close above 101 is likely to add to the bullish sentiment for a move to the 0.618 retracement at around 104.35.
For CADJPY to reverse this uptrend a close below 95.94. A break below the upper falling trendline in the falling wedge would be first warning of this scenario to play out.
EURJPY is forming an Ascending triangle like pattern. Break out needed for direction. However, EURJPY is likely to test strong resistance at around 143. A close above is likely to fuel a rally to strong resistance at around 146.40
A close below 139.55 will reverse the possible bullish scenario and is likely to push EURJPY down to support at 137.35
GBPJPY seems range bound between 161.80 and 155.35. However, even if GBPJPY breaks above upper band there is strong overhead resistance. The 55 daily SMA is declining providing some resistance. Add to that the 100 and 200 daily SMA’s around 163 will also add to the resistance picture. However, If GBPJPY can close above 161.80 RSI AND RSI is closing above 60 threshold there could be energy for a move to around 167.00
A close below 155.35 is likely to fuel a sell off down to around 150-148 i.e., September 2022 trough.
A close below 155.35 is likely to fuel a sell off down to around 150-148 i.e., September 2022 trough.
NZDJPY is breaking bullish out of its Flag pattern correction and seems set for at test of key strong resistance at around 85. A close above is likely push RSI to close above 60 threshold i.e., showing positive sentiment thus giving energy to a rally towards December peak around 88.
If NZDJPY retraces back below 82.30 the potential bullish move is demolished and a retest of support around 80.70 is likely to be tested.
USDJPY is testing key resistnace at around 132.90. A close above will confirm short-term uptrend with potential to a move toa round 136.55-137.85. 100 and 200 daily SMA will provide overhead resistance.
IF USDJPY closes above 133 RSI is likely to close above 60 threshold i.e., in a positive sentiment supporting the bullish view.
For USDJPY to demolish and reverse this scenario a drop back below 129.75 is needed.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer