Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Chief Investment Strategist
Summary: A confirmation of the Fed pivot by Chair Powell could underpin a bearish dollar environment into the end of the year, with seasonality supporting the risk on move as well despite some pushback from other Fed members. Bank of Japan is a key event risk ahead, but markets will likely get quieter after that before 2024 could bring back a reality check on soft landing hopes and delayed pivots from ECB and BOE.