Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Last week saw a hot US CPI figure which caused the market to reprice rate cut expectations. Fed funds futures now price a total of three rate cuts in 2024 which would total -75bps, down from six cuts expected earlier in the year.
US S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 managed to reach all-time highs while in Asia the Japanese Nikkei surged towards it’s 1989 record. Crude oil traded at a three-week high as geopolitical concerns linger.
Earnings season is slowly coming an end but there will be key focus on Nvidia when it reports fourth quarter numbers on 21st February. Results are also due from mining giants BHP Group (20th Feb) and Rio Tinto (21st Feb). Eurozone CPI and PMI data is published on 22nd Feb which will give more insight on the path for EU interest rate policy.