Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
Macro Brief: Another decent US labour market print
Christopher Dembik
Head of Macro Analysis
Summary: What a difference a month makes. The previous JOLTS survey looked like a harbinger of bad times, but this latest one paints a far prettier picture.
When the previous job openings and labor turnover survey was released, commentary used terms like “horrible” and “disaster”. However, one month does not make a trend as the latest JOLTS survey has just proved.
Job openings are back to where they were in January this year, at 7.5 million in March, which is well above consensus expectations. The job opening rate is also increasing from the previous month, at 4.7% versus 4.5% (which was an 11-month low). Looking at the “quit rate”, which refers to the number of workers that are voluntarily quitting their job to find better opportunities elsewhere, we notice that it is unchanged at 2.3%.
This all tends to confirm that the US job market is still very well-oriented, as we have seen in the latest NFP report, and that wagepressures should remain stable in coming months. In terms of monetary policy implications, this is another data print that should push the Fed to stay in wait-and-see position for a prolonged period of time.
Job openings are back to where they were in January this year, at 7.5 million in March, which is well above consensus expectations. The job opening rate is also increasing from the previous month, at 4.7% versus 4.5% (which was an 11-month low). Looking at the “quit rate”, which refers to the number of workers that are voluntarily quitting their job to find better opportunities elsewhere, we notice that it is unchanged at 2.3%.
This all tends to confirm that the US job market is still very well-oriented, as we have seen in the latest NFP report, and that wagepressures should remain stable in coming months. In terms of monetary policy implications, this is another data print that should push the Fed to stay in wait-and-see position for a prolonged period of time.
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