Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Senior Investment Editor
Summary: July's market performance reveals positive equity performance despite rate hikes and steep inflation. The results come on the back of a better-than-expected earnings season (so far) as well as positive European growth figures.
Global equities climbed more than 7% in July. The positive performance may seem surprising, seeing as the global economy is still dominated by uncertainty, inflation and supply chain issues. But other financial events such as the Q2 earnings season and European growth figures during the month have been more positive, pushing equities upwards. The FOMC meeting late in July, where the American central bank, the Federal Reserve, discusses (and adjusts) interest rates, also seemed to be viewed as positive by the markets.
The US was the strongest performing region: its equity index climbed by 9%. Europe followed with 7.5% whereas Asia’s performance was slightly positive. Emerging Markets fell 0.7% for the month.
The Dollar Index Spot strengthened more than a full percentage point over the course of July. The greenback shot up early in the month but fell pretty sharply after the surge mid-month, following the FOMC meeting and in the wake of the negative first estimate for Q2 US GDP growth.