Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
OP 2019: IMF and World Bank announce intent to stop measuring GDP, focus instead on productivity
Christopher Dembik
Head of Macro Analysis
Summary: New times, new norms and new ways of measuring just how well we're all doing. It might just work.
For the full list of Saxo's 2019 Outrageous Predictions, click here.
The long reign of gross domestic product as the chief measure of economic progress
comes to an end in 2019. In a surprising move at the International Monetary Fund
and World Bank spring meetings, chief economists Pinelopi Goldberg and Gita
Gopinath announce their intent to stop measuring GDP. They argue that GDP has
failed to capture the real impact of low-cost, technology-based services and has been
unable to account for environmental issues, as attested by the gruesome effects from
pollution on human health and the environment in India and elsewhere around the
world.
Indeed, GDP fetishism has generally promoted economic policies that don’t consider
the full-cycle consequences of damage to environmental and human capital
resources. Instead, the IMF and World Bank propose a focus on productivity which
provides a better gauge to assess change in an economy’s productive capacity over
time. As Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman wrote in 1994: “productivity isn’t everything,
but in the long run, it is almost everything”.
Productivity is certainly one of the most popular, and yet least understood, terms
in economics. Simply defined, it refers to output per hour worked. In the real world,
however, productivity is a much more complex notion. In fact, it can be considered as
the greatest determinant of the standard of living over time.
If a country is looking to improve people’s happiness and health, it needs to produce
more per worker than it did in the past. Since the Industrial Revolution that began in
the 18th century, higher productivity has been the main driver of higher per capita
GDP, ultimately improving our standards of living. This unprecedented decision by the
IMF and the World Bank also symbolises the transition away from the central bank dominated
era that has been associated with the collapse in global productivity since the global financial crisis.
Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q4
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Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Head of FX Strategy
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Head of FX Strategy
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
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