Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: The Commitments of Traders reports highlight speculators positions and changes made during the week to May 26 in FX, bonds and stocks. During the week the S&P 500 rallied to reach the important 3000 level, the dollar weakened while bonds continued to trade steady.
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
Hedge funds and other large speculators resumed selling of U.S. dollars in the week to May 26. The Greenback weakened against all the ten IMM currency futures tracked in this. As a result the dollar short rose by one-third to $6.4 billion.