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Technical Update - SP 500 and Nasdaq 100 bouncing off supports to test resistance levels. Can they break them?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Résumé: S&P 500 / US500 and NAsdaq 100 / USNAS 100 have rebounded strongly from supports to test resistance levels. Can the Indices break the resistance levels and build uptrend or will downtrend resume?
S&P 500 reached 1.382 projection to the Head to Neckline of the SHS like pattern at around 4,222 before rebounding.
Testing the lower part of the GAP to resistance at around 4,401.If closing the gap i.e., a close above 4,401 S&P 500 could bounce further to minor resistance at around 4,461. If the Index then can manage to close above that level and above the Cloud (shaded area)uptrend has been confirmed with potential to 4,600.
However, RSI could be key here. It is still showing negative sentiment and needs to close above 60 threshold to reverse to positive i.e., Bullish indication
If S&P slides back below 4,328 selling pressure is likely to resume with a re-test of the 4,213 support to follow
Testing the lower part of the GAP to resistance at around 4,401.If closing the gap i.e., a close above 4,401 S&P 500 could bounce further to minor resistance at around 4,461. If the Index then can manage to close above that level and above the Cloud (shaded area)uptrend has been confirmed with potential to 4,600.
However, RSI could be key here. It is still showing negative sentiment and needs to close above 60 threshold to reverse to positive i.e., Bullish indication
If S&P slides back below 4,328 selling pressure is likely to resume with a re-test of the 4,213 support to follow
US500 cfd: bounced from 200 Moving Average. The bounce could continue to the 0.618 retracement at around 4,410 where the 55 Moving Average is coming down to add to the resistance.
RSI is negative and needs to close above 60
Strong resistance at around 4,467. If the US500 is sliding back below 4,327 it could be pushed back down to towards the 4,200 level
Nasdaq 100 closed the gap but got rejected yesterday at the resistance at around 15,139, it closed below. Almost on the 55 Moving Average.
Nasdaq 100 actually tested the upper part of the Cloud (shaded area and Cloud span B) only to get rejected.
A close above and an RSI close above 60 threshold are needed to confirm a bullish trend.
If that scenario plays out a move to the resistance at around 15,567 could be seen. However, the upper falling trendline will add to the resistance.
If Nasdaq slides back below 14,840 the down trend is likely to resume with a move down to 14,254 as a likely result. Could drop lower however, as 14,254 is not a strong support
USNAS100 cfd rejected at the Cloud “top” at around 15,242 yesterday. A break above could lead to a rally to 15,515
If sliding back below 14,679 support at around 14,250 is in play. RSI is key, close above 60 for bullish confirmation or being rejected for bearish to resume?