Morning Brew January 4 2024

Good Morning

Risk Sentiment took a beating also on the second day of the year.

Most interesting was Bitcoin whish was hit by rumors there were delays with the Bitcoin ETF approval. The Price of the crypto currency fell from above 45000 to app 40400 before recovering to 43200.

Most major Indexes gave up ground as well with the US 500 at 4706, the US 30 37443, the USTech100NAS  136370 and the GER40 16551. Tesla fell 4%. 

While the 10 year yields retreated to 3.91 back from above 4%, the Dollar Index gained to 102.40. EURUSD is trading at 1.0930, Cable 1.2673 and USDJPY 143.73 An explosion in in Iran, resulting in over 100 casualties at an event commemorating an Iranian general killed in a US drone strike four years ago, caused oil to rise by app. 3%, curiously that did not spill over to precious metals, Gold and Silver lost significantly yesterday and are trading at 2046 and 23.00.

After the Fed minutes, rate traders continue to price in a total of 6 rate cuts this year, the implied rate is 148 BPS below the current rate at 3.84. The ECB is seen to cut six and a half time. Key of the Fed minutes was that the Fed is confident to have inflation under control and that rates were at or near the top.

Economic data was a bit mixed yesterday and today and tomorrow will bring lots of releases to make or break the week. Today, focus will be on international PMI releases, German Inflation data and the US Initial Jobless claims but eyes will already be on the Non-Farm Payroll tomorrow.

We are trading significant swings, be careful! The market is more nervous than numbers seem to justify, traders are on the edge and there seems to be a good amount of profit taking. 

Thursday
- Data: International PMI, De CPI, USADP Employment Index,  Initial Jobless Claims,

Friday
- Data EU Inflation. US Non Farm Payrolls, Canada Unemployment, ISM non-Manufacturing Index