Morning Brew November 26 2024

Good morning,

Team Trump continues to dominate the market. An announcement yesterday that he was looking to impose tariffs of 25% on Canadian and Mexican exports, as well as raise the ones on Chinese goods to the US, has raised nervousness. The Chinese Ambassador warned that a trade war would not benefit anyone.

Equities gave up some of yesterday's gains, and the Mexican Peso, as well as the Canadian Dollar, fell against the US Dollar. Yesterday, the announcement of Scott Besset had boosted US equities and weighed on yields. The Dow gained 1%, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 0.3%, and the Russell 2000 reached an all-time high. The DAX is trading approximately 3000 points above last year, even though earnings of the 40 companies have declined by 14%.

Gold and silver had a rather horrible day with varying explanations. Some profit-taking is expected, and the expiry of the December futures contracts later in the week, along with news of a possible ceasefire in Lebanon, weighed on oil and precious metals. Gold is trading at 2622, and silver at 30.30. Support levels are 2605 and 2535 for gold, and 30 for silver.

Bitcoin receded to 94,500 on the initial failure to break the 100k mark.

Roche is looking to buy Poseida for USD 1.5 billion.

Key news today includes the US Consumer Confidence and the FED Minutes. Overnight, we are expecting the Australian rate decision.

Besides the planned data, any news from Trump's transition team has the potential to move markets. There was one comment on X that Elon Musk was too vocal and dominant in the press; there can be no king in the administration besides Trump. A conflict between the two alphas would be an interesting shift.

The Middle East and Ukraine remain in focus and can cause shifts at any time.

Tuesday
- Data Japan PPI, US Consumer Confidence FED Minutes,
Earnings: Abercrombie&Fitch, Kohl, Best Buy, Dick`s Dell, Crowdstrike, Workday, Autodesk, HP,

Wednesday
- Data Australia CPI & Rate Decision, US Durable Goods, Initial Jobless claims, PCE 16:00 CET

Thursday
- Data EU Consumer Confidence, DE CPI, Thanksgiving

Friday
- Data Japan Unemployment Rate, France GDP & CPI. Swiss KOF, EU HICP, Canada GDP, Black Friday

Expiries In GMT

NGZ4 will expire on 26/Nov at 2030 hrs
FLGZ4 will expire on 28/Nov at 1600 hrs
TTFMZ4 will expire on 28/Nov at 1000 hrs
GCZ4 will expire on 29/Nov at 1600 hrs
MGCZ4 will expire on 29/Nov at 1600 hrs
HGZ4 will expire on 29/Nov at 1600 hrs
KEZ4 will expire on 29/Nov at 1600 hrs
SILZ4 will expire on 29/Nov at 1600 hrs
SIZ4 will expire on 29/Nov at 1600 hrs
TNZ4 will expire on 29/Nov at 1600 hrs
UBZ4 will expire on 29/Nov at 1600 hrs
ZTZ4 will expire on 29/Nov at 1600 hrs
ZWZ4 will expire on 29/Nov at 1600 hrs