Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Saxo Group
Relying on a single type of investment can often expose your portfolio to unnecessary risk. Diversification across asset classes changes this by spreading investments across stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, or other assets.
Each asset class behaves differently during economic changes, and that helps investors balance their portfolio performance and reduce volatility. As a result, this strategy can add stability and let your portfolio grow more steadily over time.
Diversifying across asset classes means investing in a mix of assets, such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities, rather than focusing just on one. This approach can help reduce risk by spreading exposure across categories that often behave differently under the same economic conditions.
For example, stocks tend to perform well during periods of economic growth, while bonds may provide more stability during downturns. Also, commodities like gold often act as a hedge during inflationary periods. These differences in behaviour mean that combining various asset classes can balance your portfolio's performance and reduce overall volatility.
This type of investment diversification addresses risks specific to individual asset classes, such as sector or credit risks. However, it cannot eliminate systematic risks, like those arising from a global financial crisis, though it can help mitigate their impact.
Diversified portfolios consist of multiple asset classes, each with unique characteristics that contribute to managing risk and optimising returns:
Stocks represent ownership in companies, offering significant growth potential. They tend to appreciate during economic expansions but are more volatile over the short term due to market sentiment, economic trends, and corporate performance. Long-term returns on equities often outpace other asset classes, making them a crucial growth driver for patient investors.
Bonds provide income and stability, often acting as a hedge against equity market downturns. Fixed-income securities like government bonds are safer but yield lower returns compared to corporate bonds. High-quality bonds reduce overall portfolio risk and provide predictable cash flows, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty.
Commodities such as gold, crude oil, and agricultural goods offer diversification by responding differently to macroeconomic conditions than stocks and bonds. Gold is particularly valuable during inflationary periods or market turbulence, while energy commodities may thrive during periods of economic recovery.
Real estate combines income generation with long-term appreciation. Direct investments in property or indirect ones via Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) allow investors to benefit from this asset class. With a low correlation to equities, real estate improves portfolio diversification and provides a hedge against inflation.
Cash, savings accounts, and money market instruments offer liquidity and security. While their returns are modest, these assets preserve capital and act as a financial cushion during market instability.
Building a portfolio that can handle the ups and downs of the market requires more than just picking strong investments. Diversification of investment portfolios across asset classes adds an extra layer of protection.
Here are some key benefits of diversification across assets:
Asset allocation strategies can vary depending on an investor's profile. These examples show how portfolios can be structured for different objectives while maintaining diversification across asset classes:
This portfolio prioritises stability and income protection, making it ideal for risk-averse investors or those nearing retirement.
A balanced approach provides moderate growth and stability, suiting investors with a medium risk tolerance and a longer investment horizon.
This strategy focuses on maximising long-term returns and suits investors who can tolerate higher levels of risk.
Each of these portfolios demonstrates how diversification across asset classes supports a range of financial goals while balancing growth and risk.
Creating a diversified portfolio across assets begins with understanding your financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment horizon. These factors guide how you allocate your assets across different categories to achieve the right balance between growth and stability.
Here is a simple 3-step roadmap:
Start by identifying your financial objectives. Are you aiming for steady income, capital preservation, or long-term growth? Understanding your goals will help you determine how much risk you can afford. For example, a younger investor who is just starting their investor journey might have different goals than someone approaching retirement.
Different investors have different needs, so the choice of asset classes should reflect your circumstances. As discussed earlier, stocks provide growth potential, bonds offer stability, and real estate or commodities can be hedges against inflation or volatility. Including a mix of these can balance your portfolio through changing market conditions.
Divide your investments into percentages that suit your goals. For instance:
The effectiveness of diversification across asset classes depends on how those assets behave relative to one another. Correlation measures the relationship between the price movements of two assets, showing whether they tend to move in the same direction or in opposite directions.
Correlation is expressed as a number between -1.0 and +1.0:
To reduce overall portfolio risk, it's crucial to include assets with low or negative correlation.
Here are common examples of correlation across assets:
While diversification across asset classes reduces risk and enhances portfolio stability, it comes with specific challenges that investors must consider:
Relationships between asset classes are not constant. Stocks and bonds, historically negatively correlated, may align during rising inflation or extreme market stress. Adapting to these changes requires you to monitor your portfolio regularly and make use of tools like rolling correlation analyses.
Diversification cannot shield portfolios from global recessions, geopolitical shocks, or widespread market downturns. These risks require complementary strategies, such as hedging or tactical asset allocation, to mitigate their impact.
Including too many assets or overly similar investments can spread exposure too thin, reducing the portfolio's ability to take advantage of high-performing segments. Striking the right balance is essential if you want to maintain growth potential.
Managing a diversified portfolio, especially with alternative investments, can increase transaction fees and administrative complexity. These costs must be weighed against the benefits to prevent them from reducing your overall returns.
Over time, the performance of various asset classes can cause a portfolio to drift away from its original allocation. For example, if stocks experience a strong rally, they may make up a larger percentage of the portfolio than intended, increasing exposure to risk. Rebalancing ensures the portfolio maintains its intended structure and risk profile.
There are several ways to rebalance a portfolio:
Frequent rebalancing can result in higher transaction fees or tax liabilities, especially in taxable accounts. Investors can reduce these costs by using tax-advantaged accounts for adjustments. Setting clear thresholds, such as rebalancing only when an asset class deviates by, let's say, more than 5%, may also minimise unnecessary trading.
Diversification across asset classes is essential for trying to build a resilient portfolio that balances risk and growth. When you combine different asset categories, such as stocks, bonds, real estate, or commodities, you can reduce the impact of market volatility and achieve more consistent returns over time.
However, diversification is not a set-it-and-forget-it strategy. You must regularly monitor your portfolio to ensure the allocation remains aligned with your financial goals. This involves rebalancing to address changes in asset performance and adapting to evolving market conditions.