Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
Saxo Group
Building a resilient portfolio requires careful planning, and diversification is one of the most important parts of any investment strategy. Pioneered as part of the ‘modern portfolio theory’ introduced by American economist Harry Markowitz, it remains one of the most effective ways to manage risk and deal with market volatility. Diversification involves combining uncorrelated assets in the same portfolio to reduce downside risk.
Markets fluctuate and develop, and the financial landscape has changed significantly over the years. Even so, the principles of diversification remain timeless. Spreading investments across different assets, sectors, and geographies helps investors limit losses and maintain balance in unpredictable markets.
Harry Markowitz revolutionised investment theory with his work on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) in the 1950s. MPT demonstrates how combining uncorrelated assets can minimise portfolio risk without sacrificing potential returns. Diversification, alongside risk, return, and correlation, is one of the core concepts of this theory to investing in markets.
This groundbreaking idea showed that risk isn't only about individual investments, but also about how those investments interact within a portfolio. A key concept is correlation, or the tendency of two assets to move together in price.
Essentially, diversification aims to reduce unsystematic risk, which is specific to individual securities or sectors. By holding a variety of uncorrelated assets that respond differently to market events, investors can try to offset the effects of market volatility. This approach is a fundamental shift from concentrating wealth in a single stock or sector.
Over time, diversification strategies have expanded beyond the basics of MPT. Modern investors use advanced tools and techniques to address today's dynamic financial environment.
Here are a few:
Despite these evolutions, diversification remains vital for managing risk and achieving financial goals.
Diversification is a simple concept, but there are various strategies investors can use to mitigate risks and enhance portfolio resilience with diversification. Each approach plays a role in balancing potential returns with acceptable levels of risk.
Diversifying across asset classes is one of the simplest and most effective forms of diversification strategy. Stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities react differently to market conditions, offering a natural hedge. For example, stocks typically perform well in growth-oriented markets, while bonds provide stability during economic downturns.
Cryptocurrencies have also emerged as an alternative asset class, adding another layer of diversification. However, their volatility makes them suitable only for investors with higher risk tolerance, and it is not clear what their long-term correlation with equities or other asset classes will be.
Further diversification occurs within individual asset classes. For stocks, this involves spreading investments across industries such as healthcare, technology, and consumer goods. Sector-specific risks, like a regulatory change affecting technology, can be offset by gains in less-impacted areas like utilities or real estate. In general, tech or other growth stocks often perform better in times of economic growth, while consumer goods companies with a stable client base (such as tobacco companies) tend to be resilient to downturns.
In bonds, diversifying by issuer type (corporate vs. government) and maturity lengths (short, medium, and long-term) can help ensure protection against interest rate changes or credit risks.
Economic conditions vary across countries, making geographic diversification another option for protecting portfolio returns. Combining domestic assets with international investments reduces reliance on a single economy, although investors must remember that many financial crashes are global and can impact equity markets worldwide. Developed markets may offer stability, while emerging markets provide high-growth potential but could also come with increased volatility.
For instance, an investor holding US stocks may consider adding exposure to Asian or European markets to benefit from different growth cycles and opportunities. Different markets have different levels of correlation, with distant economies that do not have extensive trade ties less likely to be strongly correlated.
Balancing low-risk and high-risk investments ensures a portfolio can face market volatility and maintain performance. Treasury bonds and blue-chip stocks provide a solid foundation of low-risk, safe haven assets, while growth stocks or high-yield bonds add the potential for higher returns. How to strike this balance depends on the investor's financial goals and risk tolerance.
Maturity lengths play an important role in bond diversification. Short-term bonds are less sensitive to interest rate fluctuations but may offer lower returns. Long-term bonds, while more volatile, can potentially deliver higher yields. Including both can help spread risk across varying economic conditions.
Investors can also diversify by including both tangible and intangible assets in their portfolios. Tangible investments like real estate and gold provide intrinsic value and (often) price stability. Intangible assets such as stocks and digital securities offer liquidity and scalability.
For example, holding a combination of gold and equity ETFs gives exposure to both physical and market-driven assets. In many countries, wealth is divided between property investments (primary or secondary residence) and intangible assets such as stocks.
Spreading investments across multiple platforms reduces risks like custodial insolvency. Using different brokers or banks prevents over-reliance on a single institution. Balancing physical assets with digital storage options further mitigates systemic risks. Many jurisdictions offer deposit protection schemes up to a certain amount, so it makes sense for large portfolios to split their assets with multiple sums equal to that sum.
Alternative assets, such as REITs, hedge funds, and collectibles, provide diversification beyond traditional markets. These investments often have low correlations with stocks and bonds, improving portfolio stability. For instance, REITs can generate steady income, while hedge funds offer exposure to unique strategies and aim to provide consistent returns regardless of market movements.
Diversification offers several benefits that help investors manage risk and create a more stable portfolio.
A diversified portfolio reduces the impact of poor performance from any single investment. When assets respond differently to market conditions, losses in one area are often balanced by gains in another. This approach helps smooth overall portfolio performance and minimises exposure to unsystematic risk.
Diversification promotes long-term portfolio stability. Spreading investments across asset classes and regions limits the effects of market volatility. This is especially valuable during periods of economic uncertainty, as it reduces the likelihood of significant losses.
Investors benefit from exposure to a wider range of markets, industries, and geographies, because this access increases the chances of identifying growth opportunities and capitalising on them–whether in emerging markets, innovative sectors, or alternative investments.
Concentrating investments in a single sector increases vulnerability to industry-specific downturns. Diversification across multiple industries mitigates this risk, ensuring the portfolio remains resilient even when one sector underperforms.
While diversification is often a helpful strategy, it comes with its own set of drawbacks that investors should consider.
Spreading investments across multiple assets often limits the potential for outsized gains. When high-performing investments are combined with weaker ones, the overall portfolio return may be lower compared to a concentrated approach.
Managing a diversified portfolio requires significant effort. Monitoring various asset classes, geographies, and industries can become complex, especially for individual investors. Ensuring that allocations remain balanced and aligned with goals adds to this challenge.
Diversification may lead to additional expenses. Transaction fees, fund management charges, and advisory costs can accumulate, reducing the net returns of the portfolio. This is particularly relevant for investors using active management strategies. The more trading you do to create and rebalance your portfolio, the more you will spend on fees and commissions. More complex portfolios require more rebalancing.
Over-diversification occurs when a portfolio includes too many assets, diluting potential gains and increasing management difficulty. Holding excessive investments can result in diminished returns, as well as overlapping exposures that fail to achieve true risk reduction. Most investment strategies rely on the long-term performance of equities, which tend to increase in value over time. Over-diversification (by also including bonds, gold, and so on) may reduce exposure to this value-creating tendency.
A diversified portfolio requires clear objectives, disciplined planning, and regular adjustments to help ensure better resilience against market fluctuations.
Establishing financial goals is the foundation of a strong portfolio. A longer timeline allows for a focus on growth assets like equities, while short-term objectives often call for more stable investments such as bonds. Understanding personal risk tolerance ensures that portfolio choices align with the investor's ability to handle potential losses.
Spreading investments across multiple asset classes reduces reliance on a single type of asset. A balanced allocation, such as the traditional 60/40 split between stocks and bonds, provides stability and growth potential.
Aggressive investors might consider an 80/20 mix, while more conservative approaches could favour a 50/50 allocation. Adding real estate, commodities, or alternative assets may strengthen the portfolio even further.
Building variety within each asset class adds another layer of protection.
Expanding investments beyond domestic markets helps reduce exposure to any single economy. Developed markets offer stability, while emerging markets present opportunities for higher returns. A mix of both ensures balance.
Over time, some assets outperform others, disrupting the intended allocation. Rebalancing ensures the portfolio remains aligned with the original strategy and risk profile. Regular reviews prevent imbalances from reducing diversification benefits.
Transaction fees, management expenses, and liquidity constraints can affect portfolio performance. Balancing liquid assets for short-term needs with long-term investments ensures flexibility without compromising return
Portfolio allocation example
A diversified portfolio for a moderate-risk investor might include:
This structure balances growth potential with risk management and is adaptable to individual goals. A higher percentage of equities may be appropriate for a higher-risk or longer timeframe investor.
Diversification is an essential tool for managing risk in an investment portfolio. It helps reduce vulnerabilities while balancing returns, but it is important to also understand its limitations and practical applications.
Diversification primarily addresses unsystematic risk, which is specific to individual companies or sectors. This includes risks like management inefficiencies, regulatory challenges, or sector-specific downturns. A well-diversified portfolio spreads investments across assets that respond differently to market events, reducing exposure to such risks.
Systematic risk, however, impacts the entire market or economy and cannot be eliminated through diversification. Events like recessions or geopolitical instability affect all asset classes to some degree. While diversification helps manage these risks, additional strategies such as hedging can provide further protection.
Diversification works best when assets in a portfolio have low or negative correlations. This means they do not move in the same direction under similar market conditions. For instance, equities and bonds often show low correlation, making them a strong combination for reducing volatility.
Measuring correlation coefficients allows investors to evaluate the diversification quality of their portfolio. A coefficient closer to -1 suggests substantial diversification benefits, while a coefficient closer to +1 indicates minimal risk reduction. Often, uncorrelated assets (coefficient close to 0) are preferred, since lower coefficient assets will eat more significantly into returns.
Hedging complements diversification by protecting against specific risks. Using hedging strategies requires careful consideration of costs and potential losses, which can impact overall portfolio performance. These strategies are best applied alongside diversification to create a more robust risk management framework.
Diversification offers valuable lessons, both in its successes and its shortcomings. Examining real-world examples can give us insights into how investors can balance risks and returns effectively.
During the 2008 financial crisis, portfolios that combined equities, bonds, and alternative investments performed better than those heavily concentrated in a single asset class. Many stock portfolios were overexposed to banking stocks which suffered the most during the crash due to their strong performance in the years leading up to 2007. A similar situation emerged during the ‘dot com bubble’ of 2000-2001, where tech stocks enjoyed a run of outsized performance before experiencing severe losses.
In a generalised market crash, investors exposed to domestic and international markets can mitigate losses through stable assets like government bonds and commodities like gold. This approach preserves capital during extreme market volatility and helps with recovery when stability returns.
For example, a 2007 portfolio holding 40% equities, 40% bonds, and 20% commodities would demonstrate resilience compared to one weighted entirely in equities. Although a cautious portfolio like this may experience lower gains during stock market booms, during downturns it could outperform, as losses tend to be concentrated in volatile equity markets.
Over-diversification is a potential pitfall for investors. In the past, some large funds have struggled due to holding excessive numbers of assets, many with overlapping characteristics.
For instance, public pension funds in the US have faced criticism for managing large, complex portfolios which do not beat their benchmark, often including alternative assets and with limited transparency.
Relying on correlated assets is another issue. The dot com bubble of the early 2000s exposed the risks of concentrating investments in a single sector, even if diversified by geography and company. Investors heavily weighted in technology stocks saw massive losses as the bubble burst, underscoring the need for a diversified strategy that includes uncorrelated assets.
Diversification is your best defence against uncertainty. No one can predict the future, but spreading investments across uncorrelated assets can help ensure you are not overly exposed to any single risk. A well-diversified portfolio doesn't just try to protect against potential losses, but it can also help position you for consistent performance over time in most market environments.