Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Saxo Group
Introduction: Why a selloff can be an opportunity, not a threat
Market downturns often stir anxiety — but they can also offer valuable moments for reflection. When equity markets fall, it’s not always a sign to exit. In fact, a selloff can be a strategic opportunity to review your portfolio’s structure, examine your emotional response, and refocus on your long-term objectives.
This guide outlines practical, evergreen investment principles to help you stay calm, rebalance effectively, and use periods of volatility to your advantage.
Market volatility is part and parcel of investing. It can be tempting to respond emotionally when your portfolio loses value — but decisions driven by fear rarely support long-term financial success.
Key mindset shifts to embrace:
Before making any changes, revisit your financial goals and risk profile. Investing is a long-term journey, not a daily referendum.
During sharp market moves, portfolios often drift away from their original allocations. A selloff may cause certain sectors or asset classes to become overweighted, while others fall behind. Rebalancing helps restore alignment with your intended risk and return profile.
Consider the following actions:
If you’ve built up cash reserves, a pullback may offer a good opportunity to re-enter or increase your positions with greater confidence.
Diversification remains one of the most effective ways to manage risk — but it only works if implemented thoughtfully. As Nobel Laureate Harry Markowitz put it, diversification is the only “free lunch” in investing. The key is to ensure your assets don’t all move in the same direction at the same time.
Broad diversification:
Correlation matters:
Simply owning multiple shares or funds isn’t enough if they’re all exposed to the same risks. For instance, a portfolio of several tech or banking stocks may still move in lockstep during a downturn.
The most resilient portfolios include:
Be mindful of home bias:
Many investors instinctively favour domestic equities — but this can increase exposure to country-specific risks. A globally diversified portfolio gives you access to varied economic cycles and broadens your potential for returns.
Think in terms of time horizon:
If you’re many years from retirement, you can typically tolerate more equity exposure, which has historically provided higher long-term returns. As you approach retirement, gradually increasing allocation to bonds and other defensive assets can help preserve capital and reduce volatility.
Market downturns often reflect investor emotion more than business fundamentals. During periods of panic selling, well-managed companies can become significantly undervalued — presenting opportunities for long-term investors.
To identify potential opportunities:
Selloffs are rarely efficient. That’s why they can uncover hidden value — if you know where and how to look.
No matter the market cycle, these core principles can help you stay steady and strategic when prices drop:
These lessons don’t change with the headlines — they’re the foundation of long-term investment success.
A market correction is not necessarily a crisis. More often, it’s a valuable checkpoint — a moment to reassess your portfolio’s structure, risk exposure, and alignment with your financial goals.
By staying grounded, reinforcing your diversification, and spotting opportunity amid uncertainty, you strengthen not only your portfolio but your confidence as an investor. The ability to think clearly in a downturn is what separates short-term noise from long-term resilience.
So when markets fall, don’t panic — rethink. And let strategy, not emotion, lead the way.