Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Saxo Group
When markets fall sharply, it’s natural to feel unsettled. Watching your portfolio decline can trigger strong emotional responses — and with those emotions often comes the urge to act quickly.
But here’s the reality: some of the most effective investment decisions are made after a pause. A selloff, while uncomfortable, can be a valuable opportunity to step back and reassess — your portfolio’s structure, its purpose, and how well it aligns with your long-term goals.
Panic rarely leads to sound investment decisions. When markets become volatile, your first move should be to take a breath and remember why you’re investing.
Most investors are focused on long-term outcomes — such as retirement, financial security, or generational wealth. Reconnecting with these goals can help restore clarity.
Timeless principles to keep in mind:
This is a moment to step back from headlines and short-term fluctuations, and instead return to the foundations of steady, purposeful investing.
You’ve likely heard that diversification is key — and it is. But effective diversification goes beyond simply owning multiple assets. It means intentionally spreading risk across different asset classes, industries, regions, and behaviours.
What effective diversification looks like
Adding more investments to a portfolio only reduces volatility up to a point. The real benefit comes when you combine assets that respond differently to the same events — such as energy and tech stocks, which may behave very differently during inflationary periods or interest rate changes.
Low-cost passive funds, like ETFs tracking the MSCI World Index, offer global exposure in a single instrument — ideal for investors seeking simplicity without sacrificing breadth.
Common diversification pitfalls to avoid:
Diversification should be intentional — shaped by your time horizon, risk tolerance, and broader financial goals.
Market selloffs often lead to imbalances in your portfolio. Some sectors may decline more sharply, shifting your asset allocation away from your target mix. This presents an opportunity to rebalance.
Rebalancing might involve:
If you’ve set aside cash, a downturn may be the right time to deploy some of it thoughtfully. Consider:
Pullbacks aren’t always logical. That’s where calm, research-driven investors can find value.
Your investment strategy should reflect your time horizon — especially in volatile periods.
There is no universal rule, but knowing how far you are from needing your capital will help you remain calm and appropriately invested through market cycles.
Volatile markets often result in indiscriminate selling. Even strong, well-managed companies can be caught in the tide. This is where patient investors can step in.
Use this time to investigate:
By approaching market volatility with curiosity rather than concern, you can uncover potential opportunities that others may overlook.
Periods of market stress are part of every investor’s journey. What distinguishes long-term success is not avoiding these moments, but responding to them with clarity and discipline.
A selloff is not a signal to abandon your strategy. It’s a reminder to reflect, reassess, and make sure your portfolio is truly aligned with your long-term vision.
By staying calm, reinforcing proper diversification, rebalancing when appropriate, and maintaining focus on your time horizon, you can transform short-term volatility into a catalyst for long-term resilience.
At Saxo, we’re here to support that process — with tools, insights, and a platform built for thoughtful, confident investing, in any market environment.