Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Saxo Group
Volatility is a natural part of investing. While it may feel uncomfortable, it doesn’t have to derail your long-term financial goals. Whether prompted by economic data, company news, or geopolitical developments, market turbulence often tests investor confidence.
The good news? You don’t need to control the market — you simply need to control how you respond to it. With a well-diversified strategy in place, you can manage risk, remain focused, and even uncover opportunity in times of uncertainty.
Market volatility often moves in cycles. Historically, the second half of the year — particularly late summer into autumn — tends to see increased market activity. This period often coincides with earnings reports, policy announcements, and geopolitical developments.
In years marked by elections or broader global events, investor sentiment can swing more rapidly. While these moments are difficult to predict, they are possible to prepare for — and preparation begins with the structure of your portfolio.
Diversification remains one of the most effective ways to reduce portfolio risk. Far from being a buzzword, it is a fundamental principle that helps smooth out investment performance over time.
By spreading your holdings across different asset classes — including equities, bonds, commodities, and currencies — you reduce the likelihood that all parts of your portfolio will respond in the same way to a market shock. While some investments may fall in value, others may hold steady or even gain, helping to moderate overall volatility.
Studies consistently show that diversified portfolios tend to perform more steadily during turbulent periods. Those that blend growth and defensive assets, and maintain a balance between domestic and global exposure, typically experience less dramatic drawdowns and more stable returns.
When markets become unsettled, it's easy to feel compelled to act quickly. But emotional reactions often lead to impulsive decisions that can undermine long-term strategy. Instead, consider these steps to respond with clarity and purpose:
Emotions can cloud judgement. Markets have recovered from past downturns — often sooner than expected. Taking a step back before making big changes can prevent long-term regrets.
Volatility can throw your portfolio off balance. Rebalancing helps restore your original asset allocation by trimming overweight areas and reinforcing underrepresented ones.
Companies with solid fundamentals — such as consistent revenue, strong balance sheets, and durable business models — tend to perform more reliably during turbulent periods. Use this time to assess the resilience of your current holdings.
Zooming out helps put short-term dips into context. If your investment horizon stretches five, ten, or twenty years ahead, temporary volatility should not dictate permanent decisions.
In addition to staying calm, you can take proactive steps to strengthen your portfolio during times of uncertainty:
Include a mix of equities, fixed income, and potentially alternative assets. Avoid concentrating your investments in a single region or sector. A truly diversified portfolio is multi-asset and global in scope.
Maintaining a reasonable cash buffer provides flexibility. Whether to manage unexpected costs or to take advantage of market opportunities, cash can be a powerful risk-management tool.
Investing a fixed amount regularly helps smooth out your entry points over time. This disciplined approach removes the need to time the market and can reduce the impact of volatility on your overall returns.
If you use stop-loss orders to manage risk, take time to review them. Ensure they are in line with your current risk appetite and market conditions.
If recent market movements have left you feeling anxious, it may be time to re-evaluate your risk tolerance. Your portfolio should reflect both your financial goals and your emotional comfort level.
Preliminary research across investor accounts indicates that those holding well-diversified, multi-asset portfolios tend to achieve more consistent outcomes. In periods of market stress, these portfolios often experience lower volatility and are better positioned to participate in subsequent recoveries.
While many factors influence performance — including timing, security selection, and investor discipline — one insight remains clear: investors who maintain diversification are often better equipped to stay the course and avoid emotional missteps.
Uncertainty is part of investing, but how you navigate it makes all the difference. A carefully diversified portfolio, supported by long-term thinking and sound tactical decisions, can provide the resilience needed to manage short-term market swings without losing sight of your goals.
Whether you’re investing for retirement, wealth preservation, or future opportunity, remember: your portfolio doesn’t need to be perfect. It needs to be prepared.
At Saxo, we’re here to support that preparation — with expert insights, innovative tools, and a platform built to help you invest with clarity and confidence, in any market environment.