Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Saxo Group
Periods of market turmoil and economic uncertainty are an inevitable part of the investment journey. During such times, maintaining a calm, strategic mindset is essential.
This guide explores how to protect your portfolio when markets become volatile — offering insights into managing risk, identifying opportunity, and avoiding common behavioural pitfalls. The aim is not just to survive market turbulence, but to emerge from it with greater confidence and resilience.
Market volatility is a natural feature of financial cycles. While sharp declines may be triggered by events such as geopolitical tensions, unexpected central bank decisions, disappointing corporate earnings, or shifts in investor sentiment, short-term sell-offs are not unusual — nor are they necessarily cause for alarm.
Some investors turn to indicators such as the Sahm Rule, which suggests a recession may be likely if the three-month average unemployment rate rises by 0.5% above its 12-month low. While such frameworks can provide useful context, they should be interpreted with caution. Overreacting to headlines or isolated data points often leads to suboptimal decisions.
Legendary investors like Warren Buffett advocate a long-term approach, reducing exposure when valuations are high and increasing it when others are fearful. This kind of disciplined perspective reinforces a key principle: markets tend to recover over time, even if the path is unpredictable.
Bottom line: Market ups and downs are inevitable, but over the long term, patient and consistent investors are typically rewarded.
Experienced investors often remain composed during periods of elevated market volatility. Rather than exiting the market altogether, many view downturns as an opportunity to reassess their strategy or rebalance portfolios toward long-term goals.
Higher volatility is often accompanied by increased emotional pressure. Indicators such as the VIX Index can reflect rising investor anxiety — and volatile markets tend to test emotional discipline.
However, recognising that volatility is a normal part of investing — not an exception — can help you maintain confidence and stay focused on your broader financial plan.
Diversification remains one of the most effective ways to manage investment risk. By spreading exposure across a range of asset classes — such as equities, fixed income, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) — investors can reduce their reliance on any single sector, region, or asset type.
That said, diversification is not a guarantee against losses. Even well-diversified portfolios may experience short-term drawdowns. Furthermore, certain instruments such as ETFs carry their own risks, including:
Diversification is a long-term strategy to reduce portfolio risk — not an insurance policy against all market declines.
In some cases, investors may use options or other derivatives to hedge against downside risk. These instruments can provide protection during turbulent periods, but they are complex and require a solid understanding of how they work — as well as the costs involved.
For example, purchasing a put option can limit losses but also results in the loss of the premium paid if the market doesn’t move as expected. Hedging strategies may also demand precise timing and ongoing monitoring.
Before using derivatives for protection, investors should ensure they have adequate knowledge or seek professional advice to confirm alignment with their objectives and risk tolerance.
Market stress often triggers a variety of behavioural responses — some of which can undermine long-term success. Common patterns include:
Understanding your natural tendencies can help you anticipate emotional responses and make more measured decisions when markets are volatile.
Here are some actionable steps to help maintain discipline and protect your investments during periods of market uncertainty:
Emotional decisions are often short-sighted. History shows that markets recover over time. Try to avoid reactive moves that could derail your long-term financial plan.
Volatility can shift the balance of your investments. Periodic rebalancing ensures that your asset allocation remains aligned with your original objectives and risk profile.
Ensure your portfolio remains well-diversified across asset classes, sectors, and geographies. This helps cushion the impact of downturns in any single area of the market.
Maintaining sufficient liquidity can prevent the need to sell investments during market lows. Cash reserves also provide flexibility — allowing you to take advantage of opportunities as they arise.
Investing a fixed amount at regular intervals — regardless of market conditions — helps reduce the impact of volatility over time. This strategy removes emotion from investment timing.
Risk management mechanisms such as stop-loss orders should be reviewed periodically. Adjust them based on changing market conditions and your evolving goals.
Market volatility can feel uncomfortable, but it doesn’t have to be impossible to navigate. With a thoughtful and disciplined approach, investors can not only protect their capital but also find opportunities during uncertain times.
By remaining emotionally grounded, diversifying intelligently, employing appropriate risk strategies, and maintaining a long-term view, you can enhance your ability to navigate market cycles with confidence.
Stay informed, stay steady — and let your financial plan, not fear, shape your investment decisions.