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COT report: Broad demand for metals in week that saw USD position flip to a net short
Commodities
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Key points:
- Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodities during the week ending Tuesday, 18 March, 2025.
- In forex, a ninth consecutive week of USD selling saw the non-commercial position flip to a net short for the first time in five months.
- Commodities were mixed with demand from money manages being concentrated in Brent crude, gasoline, precious and industrial metals as well as sugar.
- The main contracts being exposed to net selling were WTI crude, diesel, natural gas, corn and soybeans
Forex:
In the forex market, nine consecutive weeks of USD selling finally saw the non-commercial dollar position against eight IMM futures flip to a small net short of USD 1 billion, the first in five months. The shift was led by the biggest amount of weekly EUR buying in five years, primarily due to short positions scaling back. Additional buying was seen in CHF, CAD, NZD, and MXN, and only partly offset by selling of JPY, as traders booked profit, and an extension of the AUD short.
Major longs against the USD are currently held in JPY and EUR, while the bulk of the short positions are in CAD, CHF, and AUD.
Commodities:
During a week that saw the Bloomberg Commodity Index rise by 0.7%, money managers adopted a more selective approach to their commodity positions. The gains in the index were primarily driven by strength across precious and industrial metals, along with select agricultural commodities and crude oil.
Energy Markets: In the energy sector, a modest recovery in crude oil prices did little to prevent a second week of WTI selling and Brent crude buying. Despite this transition, the overall trend marked the first week of net buying in eight weeks, with net long positions across the three most traded crude futures contracts increasing by 30,000 contracts to a total of 262,000. This, however, remains 47,000 contracts below the late January peak. Meanwhile, the net long position in natural gas was trimmed by 10%, as the price suffered a setback after briefly surging above USD 4.5/MMBtu. In the refined products market, gasoline saw increased demand, being more than offset by selling of both diesel contracts.
Metals Markets: The metals sector experienced broad-based buying, with gold, silver, and copper leading the gains. Gold’s rally to a fresh record high above USD 3,000 per ounce fueled a 10% increase in its net long position, bringing it to 200,000 contracts—though still 55,000 contracts below the peak recorded last September. Silver’s net long position surged by 18%, reaching a five-year high of 49,600 contracts, as the white metal made an unsuccessful attempt to break higher above USD 34 an ounce. Meanwhile, High-Grade Copper saw a notable 64% increase in its net long position, rising to 22,400 contracts. Despite this surge to near last year’s record prices, the net long remains well below last year’s peak of 75,300 contracts.
Agricultural Markets: The agricultural sector displayed mixed trends. Corn futures faced heavy selling for a fourth consecutive week, leading to a significant 70% reduction in the net long position, which now stands at a three-month low of 107,000 contracts. On the other hand, surging sugar prices drove a substantial increase in sugar net long positions, signaling renewed ‘catching up’ demand following its recent roller coaster ride. Cotton’s recent record short position was reduced for a second week, but overall it remains one of the most shorted contracts, leaving it exposed to additional short covering, should the technical and/or fundamental outlook turn more supportive.
What is the Commitments of Traders report?
The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.
Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)
The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:
- They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
- This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
- It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming
Do note that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.
Recent commodity articles:
21 Mch 2025: Commodities weekly: High-flying precious metal sees profit taking
19 Mch 2025: Has the gold express already left the station?
17 Mch 2025: COT Report: Silver and copper stands out in week of energy weakness
14 Mch 2025: Gold surges past USD 3,000 as haven demand grows
12 Mch 2025: Tariffs and the energy transition: Key drivers of copper demand
11 Mch 2025: Gold holds steady despite deleveraging risks in volatile markets
10 Mch 2025: COT Report: Wholesale reductions in speculators' USD and commodity longs
7 Mch 2025: Commodities Weekly: Tariffs, trade tensions, fiscal bazooka, and Ukraine
5 Mch 2025: Tariff threat disconnects HG copper from global market
4 Mch 2025: Stagflation and geopolitical tensions fuel renewed demand for gold
3 Mch 2025: COT Report: Broad retreat sees WTI longs slump to 15-year low
28 Feb 2025: Commodities weekly: Broad weakness as tariff fatigue sets in
24 Feb 2025: COT Report: traders turn selective despite ongoing broad rally
21 Feb 2025: Commodities weekly: energy market strength and Trump rethoric fuel surge
18 Feb 2025: COT report: crude, gold and grains see mild profit taking
5 Feb 2025: Broad Strength Drives Commodities sector to 26-month High
4 Feb 2025: Crude Oil Wipes Out 2025 Gains as Tariffs and Demand Weighs
3 Feb 2025: COT Report: Mixed Week Seen Ahead of Trump's Tariff Offensive
1 Feb 2025: YouTube: Joining Kevin Muir on The Market Huddle podcast
Podcasts that include commodities focus:
18 Mch 2025: US market found support, but how durable will it be?
14 Mch 2025: Is silver set to shoot the lights out?
10 Mch 2025: US un-exceptionalism is the theme
7 Mch 2025: US bear market risks ratchet higher. EUR train has left the station
4 March 2025: Are we on the verge of a big whoosh?
25 Feb 2025: Meltdown risks are rising. What to watch next
18 Feb 2025: Europe is on fire
5 Feb 2025: Mag 7 risks underappreciated?
3 Feb 2025: If new Trump tariffs stick, markets have only just begun to react
31 Jan 2025: Does the market think Trump is bluffing?
29 Jan 2025: The DeepSeek winners emerge
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24 Jan 2025: Four days in, Trump continues to dominate headlines, but ...
20 Jan 2025: Trump 2.0 swings into action
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