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Morning Brew August 12 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
The US CPI failed to provide the clarity we were hoping for. The number came out exactly as predicted by the Reuters Poll, meaning inflation is high but slightly off the high last month. That means all narratives can play out and we depend on interpretation by the Fed. There is a strong case to be made for tapering, if the Fed wants to continue supporting the economy, there is room in the argument that inflation was indeed transitory and there was no need for action. The expectation is that roadmap will be announced at the Jackson Hole conference end of month, currently Fed speakers seem to be testing the mood with Esther George and Robert Kaplan arguing for tapering in the short term.
Markets seem to be mostly of the opinion that the Fed wants to remain supportive and Equities rise broadly to new highs. The Dow ends up 0.62%, the S&P 500 0.25%, the Nasdaq down 0.16% the Dax closes above 15800.
Rates swing but return to yesterday’s levels, the USD Index falls just below 93, EURUSD gains to 1.1743, GBPUSD 1.370, Bitcoin falls to 45100 Gold and Silver rise off the lows to 1750 and 23.40.
Zurich Insurance first-half business operating profit jumped 60%
Delivery Hero DHER.DE raised its 2021 outlook
Over the next few days I would expect more and more fed speakers to emerge with comments and testing the water how well markets receive plans, for today, we expect EU Industrial Production at 11:00 CET, Initial Jobless claims and the US PPI at 14:30
In addition the US budget and the debt ceiling will be in the spotlights
Trade safely
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
12 Aug 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | CBT Weekly Repo Rate | Aug | 19.00% |
12 Aug 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | O/N Lending Rate | Aug | |
12 Aug 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | O/N Borrowing Rate | Aug | |
12 Aug 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | Late Liquidity Window Rate | Aug | |
12 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 7 Aug, w/e | 373k |
13 Aug 2021 | 08:45 | France | CPI (EU Norm) Final MM | Jul | 0.1% |
13 Aug 2021 | 08:45 | France | CPI (EU Norm) Final YY | Jul | 1.6% |
13 Aug 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | Current Account Balance | Jun | |
13 Aug 2021 | 09:30 | Sweden | CPI MM | Jul | 0.3% |
13 Aug 2021 | 09:30 | Sweden | CPI YY | Jul | 1.4% |
13 Aug 2021 | 16:00 | United States | U Mich Sentiment Prelim | Aug | 81.2 |
16 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP QQ | Q2 | 0.2% |
16 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP QQ Annualised | Q2 | 0.7% |
16 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP QQ Pvt Consmp Prelim | Q2 | -0.1% |
16 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP QQ Capital Expend. | Q2 | 1.7% |
16 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP QQ External Demand | Q2 | -0.1% |
16 Aug 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | Urban Investment (YTD)YY | Jul | |
16 Aug 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | Industrial Output YY | Jul | |
16 Aug 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | Retail Sales YY | Jul | |
16 Aug 2021 | 12:00 | Euro Zone | Reserve Assets Total | Jul |
(refinitv)