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Morning Brew December 11 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Markets are looking for impulses - will it be the CPI?
Good morning,
Equities lost some ground yesterday, the Dow fell by 0.35%, the S&P 500 0.30% and the Nasdaq 0.25% with the most interesting shares Google +5% , the company introduced a new chip called Willow, which took 5 minutes to solve a computing problem that would take a classical computer more time than the history of the universe. Boeing can restart te 737 Max production and gained 5%, Nvidia lost 2.6% on the China Investigation, Walgreens rose 17% on a possible sale of a private equity investor. Moderna lost 9% on a disappointing analyst rating.
Microsoft is worth watching today as Alphabet has asked the FTC to break up it`s exclusive agreement to host OpenAI's technology on its cloud servers.
Yields in the US traded slightly higher to 4.23 and the USD Index rose to 106.36 EURUSD is at 1.0523, GBPUSD 1.2765 and USDJPY 151.80. Reuters just announced the Chinese government is looking to allow the Yuan to weaken in 2025.
Gold and Silver remain interesting, Silver seems more nervous than Gold. Gold is continuously rising and reached 2695 and Silver is still attempting to breach the 32 and is at 31.75.
Bitcoin is holding below the 100k looking for the next impule.
We are heading into the interesting phase of this week in terms of data and news, today the US CPI will be the most important release at 14:30. The expectation for the annual Consumer Price increase is 2.7% and 3.3% for the core, the band of expectation is narrow, the lowest estimate is 2.7, the high 2.8, for the core 3.2-3.4
At the same time the Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 0.5%.
Tomorrow, the Swiss National Bank and the ECB will be the center of attention, both expected to cut but while 25 BPS for the ECB are nearly certain with a probability of 87%, the SNB is less clear with a 50 BPS cut at 55%, the remaining 45% are in favor of 25.
In Switzerland we are also awaiting the finding s of the parliamentary report on the handling of the Credit Suisse demise, this could have a significant impact on UBS.
Arabica coffee has surged to a fresh record high after Volcafe, a top coffee trader, slashed the 2025/26 production outlook by almost 25%, leading to a fifth consecutive deficit year. Ole wrote.
Charu put out a great article on key topics in 2025: Five Thematic Trends to Watch in 2025
Key Events:
Wednesday
- Data US CPI, Bank Of Canada Rate Decision
Thursday
- Data AU Employment Data, Sweden CPI, Swiss Rate Decision, ECB Rate Decision, Initial Jobless Claims,
Friday
- Data Japan Tankan, France CPI,
Expiries in GMT:
FPZ4 will expire on 11/dec at 1600 hrs
JGB1Z4 will expire on 12/dec at 1600 hrs
Currency Futures 13/dec at 1600 hrs
Expiring CFDs
GASOILUKDEC24 will expire on 10/dec at 1600 hrs
USDINDEXDEC24 will expire on 12/dec at 1600 hrs
EMISSIONSDEC24 will expire on 12/dec at 1600 hrs