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Morning Brew July 4 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: US Holiday - Markets calm for now.
Good Morning,
Markets are fairly calm after the short US Trading day but we have massive event Risk in the days ahead. Remember it is a US Holiday
US Indexes closed little changed, at very low volumes. All Indexes stayed within a quarter percent move and only 6 billion shares were traded in the US vs an average of 11 billion. Tesla gained almost 7% on solid sales data.
Technically the DAX closed Friday above 16K and back above the Cloud. DAX seems to be resuming uptrend. However, RSI still showing positive sentiment is currently below 60 threshold and below its falling trendline. A close above will confirm uptrend that could push DAX to new all-time highs.
Key support at 15,625
The USD Index is little changed at near 103, EURUSD 1.0896.0GBPUSD 1.2686 and USDJPY 144.60. Gold and Silver remain at 1923 and 22.90, Bitcoin near 31.000.
Oil moved little despite the upcoming Opec summit – as Reuters as well as Bloomberg are banned from the event, News might be thin.
What to watch?
- China announced export control for metals required in chipmaking – preempting US measures.
- Treasury Secretary Yellen will visit China this week
- The Fed Minutes will be released tomorrow
- Opec Meeting – Russia as well as Saudi Arabia have already announced to at least ectend the production curbs.
- Yield curves in the EU, US as well as the UK are the most inverted in more than 10 years. Meaning short term interest is higher than long term – a sign for a coming recession.
- The Yen remains rather weak and an intervention by the BoJ is looming.
Today, overall liquidity will be thin so it will either be very calm or very erratic.
Upcomng economic data:
- TUE: July 4th RBA Announcement, NBH Announcement, South Korean CPI (Jun), German Trade Balance (May)
- WED: July 5th FOMC Minutes, Chinese Caixin Services PMI Final (Jun), EZ/UK/US Services & Composite PMI Final (Jun), US Durable Goods R (May)
- THU: July 6th NBP Announcement, Australian Trade Balance (May), EZ Retail Sales (May), US ADP National Employment (Jun), US ISM Services PMI (Jun) Opec Seminar
- FRI July 7th : German Industrial Output (May), US Jobs Report (Jun), Canadian Jobs Report (Jun)
Trade Safely.