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Morning Brew March 30 2022
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Too Much Too Fast Optimism into Quarter End may be exaggerated
Good Morning,
We saw a massive rise in stocks yesterday in what Reuters calls 'Mystifying' U.S. stock rally. The Dow gained 0.27%, the S&P 500 0.71%, and the Nasdaq 1.31% and the S&P 500 is up 11% since March 8, its biggest 15-day percentage gain since June 2020. Reasons are still large inflows, short coverings after the Ukraine but also Quarter end purchases. Apple gains 11 days in a row, the longest streak since 2003 and adds 400 bio in Market cap.
Oil, Gold and Silver lost yesterday but could recover off the lows. UKOILMAY trades as low as 104.90 to recover to 111.55.
Silver broke below 24 to recover 85 cents and Gold hit 1890. Current Levels are 24.85 and 1924.
EURUSD gained 200 pips to trade at 1.1108 and GBPUSD 1.3110, USDJPY fell to 121.99, Bitcoin is holding above the 45k resistance, now 47500.
These are exactly the kind of moves we were warning about.
Uraine reacted with skepticism to Russia's promise to scale down military operations around Kyiv ,
Russia has offered to buy back dollar bonds maturing next week in roubles and the dispute between Russia and the G7 on the payment terms for Russian Energy seem to escalate. The German IFO warns of more companies than ever looking to raise prices and are expecting inflation so exceed 5% on an annual basis for the first time since 1981.
Today the market will be driven by the proceedings in Ukraine and negotiations between the G7 and Russia, the Suisse KOF at 9:00 and the EU Economic sentiment at 11, the German CPI at 14: 00 and last but not least the US PCE at 14:30.
Continue to be careful in nervous markets.