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Morning Brew May 30 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Yields and debt-ceiling struggle boosts USD
Trading is a bit choppy into the last week of May.
While there was a general agreement on the debt ceiling, several prominent republicans including Ron DeSantis stated they would appose the deal. This causes equities to pause.
The yield curve is starting to look a bit crazy with the 1 month at 5.8% and the 10 Year a full 2% lower – the expectation for the June meeting has turned in favor of a 25 BPS Hike with a probability of 60%.
The combination of risk averseness and higher yields boost the USD to the highest since early March, the USD Index is at 104.50, EURUSD 1.0685, GBPUSD 1.2330 and USDJPY at 140.80. The Turkish Lira fell after Edogans election and is trading at more than 20 Lira per USD.
Gold and Silver are at 1933 and 23.00.
Indexes are so far unimpressed by the risk aversion affecting FX and the S&P is above the important 4.200 at 4.217 in the CFD, the US 30 33.140, the US Tech 100 11.419. The GER40 is just below the 16k.
The week will be driven by progress or lack thereof around the debt ceiling in the US and the near term rate outlook. Key planned event is likely to be the US Non-Farm Payroll on Friday but News on the Debt ceiling could cause jumps at any time.
Key events this week:
Today:
U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence (May)
Eurozone M3 growth (Apr)
Eurozone Consumer confidence & economic confidence (May)
Earnings: HP, HP Enterprise, JOYY
Wednesday 31 May
U.S. Chicago PMI (May)
U.S. JOLTS job openings (Apr)
U.S. Fed Beige book
Germany CPI EU harmonized (May)
Japan Industrial production (Apr)
Japan Retail sales (Apr)
Japan Housing starts (Apr)
China NBS manufacturing PMI & non-manufacturing PMI (May)
Australia CPI (Apr)
India Real GDP (Q1)
South Korea Industrial Production (Apr)
Earnings: Salesforce, Crowdstrike, Okta
Thursday 1 June
U.S. ADP private employment (May)
U.S. Initial jobless claims (weekly)
U.S. ISM manufacturing index (May)
Eurozone CPI EU harmonized (May)
Japan Investment in plant and equipment (Q1)
China Caixin manufacturing PMI (May)
Earnings: Broadcom, VMware, Lululemon Athletica, Dell Technologies, MongoDB, Zscaler, Dollar General, Hormel Foods, Bilibili