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Morning Brew October 31 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Halloween & Key Data
Good Morning,
Economic data was a real mess yesterday, the EU GDP came higher than expected, the US GDP weaker, the ADP Employment much higher than thought while initial US as well as German Inflation reading were higher than expected.
This puts central banks into a tight spot and the next data readings are crucial for the near-term strategies, the ECB is seen to cut at he last meeting this year and the Fed twice at the meeting next Wednesday and in December.
As the key measures the Fed is looking at came stronger, yields rose in the US but the higher EU Data boosted the Euro.
The UK Budget Statement was relatively well received, a Liz Truss Moment was avoided,.
EURUSD rose to 1.0850, GBPUSD 1.2970, USDJPY is lower at 152.20 after the BoJ left rates unchanged. Gold and Siver are a little divergent, Gold remains near the highs while silver traded in great swings yesterday and is now at 33.70. Yesterdays high and low were more than a full USD apart. That is why the implied volatility of Silver is traded at 36% for an ATM 1 month call, Gold at 16%.
In equities we saw massive nervousness with SMCI losing more than 32% on EY quitting as auditor. Reddit gained 40% on a strong result and outlook. Eli Lily disappointed and
In the regular session Indexes closed lower with the Dow -0.22%, the S&P -0.35%, and the Nasdaq -0.55%
Both Meta as well as Microsoft warned of rising costs due to AI spending. Both companies beat expectations, while Microsoft could close higher in exceeded trading, Meta gave up ground.
We expect key data today, news on China`s stimulus and possible volatility from the looming US Election. Fed Speakers are in Blackout so there are no comments from that end. We may see month end shifts.
Trade safely
Thursday
- Data China PMI, France CPI, EU Inflaltion& Unemployment rate, US PCE Canada GDP, Bank of Japan
- Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Merck, Linde, Uber, ICE, Intel,
Friday
- Data Global PMI, US Nonfarm Payrolls
- Earnings, Exxon, Chevron, CBOE