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Morning Brew September 27 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Yields - Risk off
Good Morning
Yields remain in focus – causing the classic risk off move with the USD strong, Stocks lower and Vix higher.
The Dow lost 1.19%, the S&P 500 1.4% the Nasdaq 1.48% and the GER 40 broke to below 15300. The Vix rose to almost 19% and volumes were decently high at 10.2 billion shares. The USD Index surged to 106.28 with EURUSD at 1.0560, USDJPY above 149 and Cable at 1.2150. USDCHF is at 0.9170, Gold is at 1898 and Silver 22.78. Gold and Silver are currently driven by the strong USD and less by fear.
The Equity Risk Premium, calculated as the dividend yield of the S&P 500 minus the 10 year bond yield is at the lowest level since the end of the global financial crisis.
Amazon came under additional pressure as the FTC sues the company.
In other headlines, US President Biden told the UAW to fight for a 40% pay raise, Donald Trump is found liable for Fraud in a NY court.
Today, the German GFK Consumer Confidence could be of interest, the US Durable Goods orders definitely will.
Main driver will be yields and the question at which point the USD is at least temporarily overbought and stocks oversold. At least EURUSD has the RSI in oversold territory, many of the Indexes are near.
Upcoming Events:
Wednesday
- Data US Durable Goods,
Thursday
- Data Australia Retail Sales, EU Consumer Confidence, DE CPI, US GDP, Initial Jobless Claims,
Friday
- Data Japan CPI, UK GDP, Swiss KOF; DE unemployment, EU HICP, US PCE, University of Michigan
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
- NGV3 will expire 26 Sep 2023 at 07:30 GMT
- TTFMV3 will expire 27 Sep 2023 at 09:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs
- CHINA50SEP23 will expire 27 Sep 2023 at 02:00 GMT
- GASOLINEUSOCT23 will expire 27 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
- GOLDOCT23 will expire 27 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
- HEATINGOILOCT23 will expire 27 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
- SOYBEANMEALOCT23 will expire 27 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
- SOYBEANOILOCT23 will expire 27 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
- SUGARNYOCT23 will expire 27 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
- TAIWAN95SEP23 will expire 27 Sep 2023 at 02:00 GMT
- HK50SEP23 will expire 28 Sep 2023 at 02:00 GMT
- SINGAPORESEP23 will expire 28 Sep 2023 at 02:00 GMT
Erik
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