Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
The bond market: fears of war and inflation.
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Summary: An escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict might be bullish for US Treasuries. Yet, the risk of a rebound of commodity prices due to war and the upcoming 10-year and 30-year US Treasury auctions might limit yields' decline. Within this environment, we remain defensive and wary of duration. We favor short-term sovereign bonds and inflation linkers, while we expect yield curves to continue to steepen on both sides of the Atlantic.
The Federal Reserve is facing a complex situation, which might lead to keeping rates on hold at the next FOMC meeting.
With events quickly escalating in the Middle East and the recent bond selloff pushing long-term yields to new multi-decade highs, policymakers will be reluctant to hike.
Yet, the central bank might need to keep a hawkish bias as the conflict in Israel could drive higher commodity prices, particularly oil.
That will translate in the front part of the yield curve remaining anchored, while long-term Treasuries might initially gain from safe-haven demand. However, they will still need to navigate through 10-year and 30-year auctions this week, which might provide support against declining yields.
It’s important to note that for 10-year US Treasury yields to enter a bearish trend, they will need to break below 4.05%. As yields closed at 4.8% last week, we consider that unlikely, especially as the federal deficit is swelling and inflation remains a concern.
Cash bond trading is closed today due to bank holidays in Japan and the United States. However, bond futures can suggest where long-term yields might be headed this week once the US bond market opens on Tuesday. As the 3-month SOFR rate still sees rates not dropping below 4%, it's safe to expect 10-year US Treasury yields to remain above 4.5%.
Interestingly, safe-haven demand didn't drive yields in the euro area much lower. Ten-year German Bund yields are just three basis points below their Friday's close, and they are testing their ascending trendline. That is astonishing if we consider that with news of an Israel-Hamas war, German Industrial Production numbers surprised on the downside, pointing to a deepening recession in the largest European economy.
Overall, we remain defensive and continue to be wary of duration. As the front part of the yield curve remains anchored, investors can maximize returns while limiting duration and volatility risk. We also continue to favor inflation linkers with short-term maturities and steepeners.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...