What is Stagflation… and why you need to care

What is Stagflation… and why you need to care

Macro
Saxo Be Invested
Saxo

Stagflation is an oft unknown term referring to an extremely rare economic crisis that results from an unusual combination of high inflation and low economic growth. It is thought that Iain Macleod, a British politician, first coined the term in a speech to Parliament in 1965 during a difficult time of unemployment and high inflation in the UK.

Saxo’s Chief Investment Officer Steen Jakobsen believes there will be Stagflation Light in the near future, and that this might act as a reset of the global economy. After this (expected) period of Stagflation Light, perhaps there will even an opportunity for a new economic era where the focus should be on the real challenges: better and cleaner energy, a bigger real economy, and much better education and social policies.

What makes it Stagflation “Light

At Saxo, we do not believe in a stagflation like the 1970s, hence the “light” definition, but more of a period of low growth combined with an uptick in unemployment rate and sustained inflation rate around 4% annualised.

However, if this turns into full Stagflation, it could cause unprecedented damage to the global economy that may last for years. As inflation continues to make the costs of living rise and interest rates climb, companies (and families) will have an increasingly higher price to pay for their debts. This could lead to widespread bankruptcy and default, and, inevitably, loss of jobs. We are already seeing an increase in the weight of the debt burden in rising interest rates for credit cards, mortgages and new car loans.

Stagflation and sectors

Peter Garnry, Saxo’s Head of Equities, says,” During periods of stagflation, sectors such as health care, consumer staples, utilities, and energy do well, while sectors such as industrials, real estate, financials, and technology do poorly. In other words, it is precisely the four defensive GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) sectors that outperform during stagflation compared to the cyclical sectors.

And don’t forget bonds. “As inflation remains elevated and the economy stagnates, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) provide a hedge against stagflation,’ says Saxo’s Head of Fixed Income, Althea Spinozzi.

Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet that will make stagflation disappear by pushing a button. The two main factors (low economic growth and relatively high inflation) are interdependent. Raising interest rates should be good for bringing inflation down but negative for economic growth. Lower interest rates would be good to give economic growth a boost but might put upwards pressure on inflation. The path that should get us out of this scenario would be increased productivity.

Managing an investment portfolio during times of stagflation can be a challenge. As mentioned by Peter Garnry, putting more weight on defensive sectors and less on the growth sectors will reduce the risk of the portfolio. Also, bonds can play a more important role, given the attractive yields at this moment and their more defensive character by nature. As mentioned by Althea Spinoza, TIPS canprove their value, and the same goes for short-term, high-quality bonds. Another asset class that can be considered to improve the diversification in the overall portfolio is adding (or increasing) commodities.

What can you do

While so much of a stagflation scenario may feel out of your control, you can focus on what is in your control: your asset allocation. Decreasing the risk of your portfolio can be achieved by having more diversification amongst your asset classes, reducing the cyclical sectors, increasing the defensive sectors, and increasing the bond allocation.

You may be wondering what needs to happen for Stagflation to end. Increasing productivity would be beneficial. Further automation, digitization and robotization will play an important role in this. Other measures to raise productivity are increasing Research & Development, innovation and educating employees further. Also improving the mobility of employees will increase productivity.

At the same time governments and central banks have to manage their balancing act between economic growth and interest rates to avoid Full Stagflation whereby inflation could be significantly higher than today and where the unemployment rate will rise dramatically.

We at Saxo will continue to monitor the situation as it develops. Make sure watch this space and tune into our daily Saxo Market Call for ongoing updates.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992