EURUSD set to rally again after fresh Trump tariff barrage?

Norges bank fails to cut
The Norwegian central bank held off from cutting the policy rate for the first time for this cycle. The market has largely called this development, with only low odds of a cut priced in, even after the central bank guided for a cut back in January before the latest, huge jump in the February CPI. The bank today guided expectations for the policy rate to fall this year to 4.0% by year-end (currently 4.5%) and the reaction saw a modest back off in NOK strength after the vicious rally of late. EURNOK is working down into a huge chart area that stretches down to just below 11.10. I still like it lower eventually even if we settle into a period of consolidation.

The week ahead
The week ahead features all of the usual first week of the month US data like the ISMs and labor market data next Friday, but the key event risk to “get out of the way” will be the April 2 Trump tariff announcements, which Trump has tried to sell more recently as “nicer” and “fairer” after previously touting them as “the big one”. Yesterday’s new auto tariffs can be thought of as a mini-test of the market mood here as they were more of a surprise than what is coming next Wednesday. Yesterday suggests that short term moves on tariffs are unreliable and increasingly modest. Tariffs are a policy that impact over a long time frame. After next Wednesday, the focus could quickly shift elsewhere, and whatever unfolds in the wake of Trump’s “Liberation Day” it could be just as much a function of getting this day out of the way to allow putting new risk capital to work as anything else.

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
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The Euro rally has been effectively neutralized, so it is time for the single currency to put back on a show of strength or it may suffer a deeper rout as stale longs are forced to square positions. Elsewhere, the CAD weakness continues to ebb, while the JPY weakness has been one-to-one with the backup in us treasury yields.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.
In the individual pairs, USDJPY is hanging on by a thread to its downtrend, and could well tilt higher still if US yields don't reverse lower here. Key USDJPY levels include the 200-day moving average currently at 151.67 and perhaps the ultimate resistance, the 61.8% retracement of the sell-off sequence at 154.16. EURCHF made a stand around the critical 0.9500 level today, and EURGBP needs to put in a rally to get a sense of broader EUR strength here, with the EURUSD uptrend still well into positive territory due to the magnitude of the launch higher through the 1.0600 area to the 1.0955 high.