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Morning Brew April 16 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Classic Risk Off
Good morning,
Markets remain extremely nervous and trade in large swings and volatility jumps.
Initially sentiment looked positive but rising yields and fear of an escalation in the middle east caused stocks to sell, the S%P initially gained almost 1% but then fell to close 1.2% below Friday’s level. The Dow lost 0.65% and the Nasdaq 100 1.65%. Tesla and apple weighed as Elon Musk announced job cuts and iPhone shipments fell by 10% in Q1.
The Vix gained almost 2 full points, 2-Year Yields in the US test the 5% and the 10 Year 4.6%, without a shift in expectations of the Fed`s path.
EURUSD is 1.062.0, GBPUSD 1.2437 and USDJPY 154.30. The Yen`s weakness is clearly putting the Bank of Japan in a tight spot. The Yen is normally a safe haven currency but is falling against the trend.
Gold and Silver are strong at 2386 and 28.73.
Over night, China reported mixed data, the GDP exceeded expectations by 0.7% but Retail Sales came 1.5% lower than hoped at 3.1% vs 4.6% expected.
UBS sees see higher oil for longer, Quality outperforming Value equities, bonds outperforming stocks, higher VIX, Gold, $ & CHF winning in a research note after the increased tensions,
Ole Hansen made a special Podacast on the Iran – Israel escalation
Kim took a look at technicals of US Indexes, Nasdaq broke the key support level and the US 500 is just testing it (5047)
Peter issued an Equity note with companies that are particularly interesting: What Iran attack means for air defence; iPhone loses market share
The Key message in these nervous markets is to keep your risk under control, this can be smaller position sizes, Stops, protection via options, spear trades vs outright positions…
Changes in the situation in the middle east are the most likely source of volatility but by far not the only one – Trade carefully and be ready for sharp moves.
Tuesday
- Data China Retail Sales, UK Labor market, EU Trade Balance, DE ZEW, Canada CPI; US Industrial Production, BoE Baily, US Powell, Williams & Barkin speak
- Earnings: Johnson&Johnson, Bank of NY Mellon, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Interactive Brokers.
Wednesday
- Data Japan Trade, UK CPI, EU Inflation, EU-US Forum with many speakers.
- Earnings: ASML Volvo. CSX Kinder Morgan, Abott Laboratories, US Bancorp, Travelers
Thursday
- Data AU Labormarket, US Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, Bostic, Lindner & Nagel speak
- Earnings: Nordea, ABB, Investor AB. Elevance Health, Netflix, Blackstone.,
Friday
- Data Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales, Golsbee & Joachim Nagel speak
- Earnings: American Express, Schlumberger, Procter & Gamble
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
KCK4 will expire on 19 Apr 2024 at 15:00
Expiring CFDs
OILUSMAY24 will expire on 18 Apr 2024 at 15:00
COFFEENYMAY24 will expire on 18 Apr 2024 at 15:00