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Morning Brew March 26 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
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Good morning,
That was a dull day in equities if there ever was one…
The S&P 500 +0.16%, Nasdaq +0.46%, Dow +0.01%, I don`t recall a recent day where all three indexes moved less than 0.5%, volumes remained low at only 13 billion shares.
Silver broke approximately two percent higher yesterday while gold remained stable, we are trading 33.75 and 3025, US 10 Years are at 4.33 and the EU at 2.80. The USD Index rose to 104.30, EURUSD is 1.0785 and GBPUSD 1.2940, USDJPY 150.45.
Ole points out that HG copper futures surged to a fresh record high overnight to USD 5.374 on speculation Trump may implement import tariffs within weeks, much earlier than expected. With LME prices in London falling, this much sought-after energy transition metal now trades at a 17% premium in NY, highlighting an increased binary risk depending on the eventual tariff level.
The big questions are threefold at the moment:
- the continuance of the rotation out of the US and into Europe
- Tariffs: Negotiations are running hot with 4 workings days to go.
- Institutional Investors are hoarding cash at the moment, whill they return to equities?
The US and Russia have agreed to ensure safe navigation and prevent military use of commercial vessels in the Black Sea, as per a White House statement. They will also develop measures to ban strikes on energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine.
Expect sharp market moves in Equities, Commodities and FX at any point in time due to the tariff negotiations – they are likely the key driver in the short term.
Wednesday, March 26
- Japan PPI – Producer Prices
- Australia CPI :Cosumer Prices
- UK Inflation Data (February): Important for gauging price pressures and monetary policy[5].
- US Durable Goods Orders (February):A measure of industrial activity and investment trends[5][6].
Thursday, March 27
- US -GDP Final Reading (Q4 2024):** An update on economic growth
Friday, March 28**
- Germany Unemployment Rate: Labor market health in Europe’s largest economy[5].
- UK GDP
- France Inflation
- Japan Inflation Data: Critical for Bank of Japan policy outlook[7].
- US Core PCE Price Index (February) The Fed's preferred inflation gauge-