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Weekly market recap & what's ahead - 31 March 2025
Macro 3 minutes to read
Koen Hoorelbeke
Investment and Options Strategist
Weekly Market Recap & What's Ahead
31 March 2025 (Week of 24 to 28 March 2025)
Key Takeaways
- Tariff announcements heavily influenced market movements; auto stocks particularly impacted.
- Volatility surged late in the week as uncertainty over Trump's tariffs intensified.
- Safe-haven assets such as gold and Treasuries saw significant inflows.
- Cryptocurrencies and related stocks weakened due to trade concerns.
- US economic data provided mixed signals, exacerbating market volatility.
Market Recap (24 to 28 March 2025)
Headline & Introduction
Markets swung sharply this week amid escalating US tariff tensions, mixed economic data, and heightened volatility. Tech initially rallied but later reversed as President Trump announced aggressive new tariffs on autos, raising global trade concerns. Cryptocurrency markets weakened, gold surged to record highs, and Treasury yields plunged amid safe-haven demand.
Equities
US stocks surged on Monday (March 24), led by optimism over targeted tariffs—Tesla (+11.9%), AMD (+7%), Nvidia (+3.2%), and Amazon (+3.6%) all rallied. However, gains faded sharply by Wednesday (March 26) after Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imported cars effective April 2—General Motors (-6%) and Ford (-5%) led declines. Europe’s auto stocks also slumped: Porsche, BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen, and Audi notably declined (March 26). Tesla remained resilient, rising modestly by 0.4% despite the broader auto sector weakness (March 27).
Volatility
The VIX initially dropped to 17.15 on optimism (March 25) but spiked sharply to 18.69 (+1.96%) by March 27 due to tariff announcements. By Friday (March 28), volatility rose further, with the VIX closing at 21.65, driven by increased anxiety ahead of further tariff actions and inflation data.
Digital Assets
Bitcoin ended the week lower at $82,102, pressured by ongoing trade uncertainties and risk-off sentiment (March 28). Ethereum dropped significantly to $1,805, and XRP notably weakened. Crypto stocks also retreated, with Coinbase (-7.8%), Marathon Digital (-8.58%), and MicroStrategy (-10.8%) facing sharp losses (March 28).
Fixed Income
Treasury yields surged initially as optimism rose, with US 10-year yields reaching 4.35% mid-week (March 26). However, yields plunged sharply by Friday (March 28) amid safe-haven demand ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement. The US 10-year benchmark dropped significantly, trading at 4.20% by the week's close.
Commodities
Gold prices surged to record highs above $3,100 on escalating trade war fears and plunging global yields (March 28). Oil prices strengthened despite economic uncertainties, driven by geopolitical tensions around Iran and Venezuela sanctions. Copper prices initially surged but reversed lower on expectations of imminent US tariffs (March 27).
Currencies
USD showed mixed movements, weakening after tariff announcements but finding strength in rising yields earlier in the week. The JPY notably strengthened due to collapsing global yields, driving USDJPY back below 149 by week's end (March 28). EURUSD stabilized around 1.0828 after hitting lows at 1.0733 earlier in the week, pressured by EU tariff threats.
Looking Ahead (31 March to 4 April 2025)
The upcoming week (March 31 to April 4, 2025) presents several pivotal events that could influence financial markets:
- March Employment Data: Scheduled for release on Friday, this report will provide insights into the labor market's health, following February's modest job growth and a slight uptick in unemployment to 4.1%.
- Trade Policy Developments: President Donald Trump is expected to unveil plans for reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, with some measures potentially taking effect early Thursday. These announcements may introduce market volatility as investors assess the implications.
- U.S. Trade Deficit Update: Amid ongoing trade policy shifts, an update on the U.S. trade deficit is anticipated on Thursday, offering further context to the nation's economic positioning.
- Manufacturing and Services Sector Data: Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for both sectors are due early in the week, providing a snapshot of economic activity and potential impacts from recent tariff policies.
- Corporate Earnings Reports: Key companies, including Conagra Brands, Lamb Weston, Guess, PVH Corp., and RH, are set to release earnings this week. These reports will shed light on consumer spending trends and the potential effects of U.S. tariffs on various industries.
- Federal Reserve Communications: Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak throughout the week, including Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday in Arlington, Virginia. Their remarks may provide insights into the central bank's economic outlook and monetary policy stance.
The past week saw sharp swings driven by intensifying tariff concerns, unsettling markets and elevating volatility. Investors will remain cautious next week, closely watching key economic data and tariff developments for clarity on market direction.
For more related content about last week's event, see:
Market Quick Take - 31 March 2025
Market Quick Take - 28 March 2025
Market Quick Take - 27 March 2025
Market Quick Take - 26 March 2025
Market Quick Take - 25 March 2025
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