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Morning Brew May 26 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Long weekend ahead, expect sharp moves on debt ceiling, Inflation and position adjustments
Nividia gained 24% yesterday as was expected and pulled AI stocks higher, Intel dropped against the trend with a loss of 5%. AMD gained 10% and Microsoft 3.6%. The Nasdaq added 1.7% and the less tech laden S&P 0.9, the Dow fell by 0.1%. Turnover in Nvidia shares was USD 60 Bio, app. 20% of all volume in the S&P 500.
The Debt ceiling remains the key topic and as of yesterday there seems to be some progress. An agreement to raise the ceiling for two years while reducing spending in all but military and veteran affairs seems possible.
One of the key worries at the moment is what would happen with US Treasuries if the treasury department is not able to redeem them due to the debt ceiling – going into a long weekend this can cause serious disruptions.
Short term yields remain very high and the inversion of the yield curve significant with the 1 month at 6% and the 5 year below 4%. The expectation for the rest of the year has shifted quite a bit – the year end rate is now at 4.93% implying half a cut of 25 BPS from more than two cuts two weeks ago.
The Core PCE Deflator will be the key scheduled event today, the expectation in for 4.6% on an annual level and monthly 0.3%.
On the higher rates and safe haven trades, the USD has gained strength but seems to fade a little after news of a possible agreement in the debt ceiling. The USD Index hit 104.30 yesterday now 104.07, EURUSD is 1.0733, GBPUSD 1.2335 and USDJPY 139.70. Gold remains near key support. The Election in Turkey will be on Sunday and Monday is a US Market holiday so expect very limited liquidity in Turkish Lira until the results are clear.
Expect sharp moved today on any further progress on the debt ceiling negotiations and the US Inflation data, I would also expect position adjustments ahead of the long weekend.
Friday 26 May
Japan Tokyo CPI (May), Australia Retail Sales (Apr, prelim), United Kingdom Retail Sales (Apr)
United States Personal Income and Consumption (Apr), Core PCE Price Index (Apr), UoM Sentiment (May, final),
Earnings; Costco, Dollar Tree, Best Buy, Gap, Meituan, NetEase
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