Gold surges past USD 3,000 as haven demand grows

Commodities

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Key points in this update:

Gold has finally surpassed USD 3,000 per ounce, raising the obvious question: what’s next?
Multiple drivers lie behind the rally, some of which are long-lasting, while others may eventually fade.
In the short term, traders will be looking for US stagflation signs and Trump tariff tantrums to support additional gains.
Real asset money managers, particularly in the West, needed a strong scare to return to gold—and that’s happening now.

Gold breached USD 3,000 per ounce today for the first time, pushing the price of a standard 400-ounce (12.4 kg) gold bar—held by central banks globally—to USD 1,200,000. This marks a stark rise from USD 110,000 in 1999, when I traded spot bullion for a hedge fund in London. Beyond reinforcing gold’s status as a long-term buy-and-hold asset, this surge reflects growing global instability, which has fueled strong demand for safe havens like bullion and, to some extent, silver.

Now that gold has reached USD 3,000, a period of profit-taking may follow, triggering a pullback to last month’s peak of USD 2,956 or even USD 2,930. However, the broader outlook remains bullish unless global risks ease significantly, thereby hurting momentum forcing speculators to reduce speculative futures positions. In addition to safe-haven demand and central bank purchases, fiscal concerns should continue to support gold. Spot gold is up 14% year-to-date, with a one-year gain nearing 39%. While a deeper correction remains a risk, we maintain our recently raised USD 3,300 target.

Before examining recent drivers, let’s revisit key reasons we highlighted in December for why the 2025 outlook remained strong, despite last year’s 27% gain:

Central bank diversification: Increased purchases to reduce reliance on the US dollar and government bonds.
Interest rate cuts: Lower rates reduce gold’s opportunity cost versus short-term government bonds.
Safe-haven appeal: Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine, along with trade war risks, could drive inflation in 2025.
Chinese demand: Investors turning to gold amid record-low savings rates and property market uncertainty.
Fiscal instability: Rising global debt burdens, particularly in the US, where President-elect Trump’s costly policies—tariffs and tax cuts—exacerbate concerns.

Since January, Trump has upended the world order, while weak economic data, including fading consumer confidence and shifting US tariff policies have unsettled Wall Street and driven the dollar lower. The resulting stock market correction, led by recently high-flying companies now facing a potential end to US exceptionalism, has prompted overseas and US investors to seek alternatives. These factors have heightened stagflation risks—slowing growth, rising unemployment, and increasing inflation—potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to ease financial conditions. Markets now anticipate three 25-basis-point cuts by year-end, up from just one in January.

Real asset money managers, particularly in the West, needed a strong stock market and economic slowdown scare to return to gold—and that’s happening now. Many exited in 2022 when the Fed’s rate hikes made gold’s carrying cost prohibitive, but concerns over stagflation leading to lower funding costs are drawing them back, albeit cautiously. This demand appears broad, with funds rotating out of equities into short-term safe havens like US Treasury bonds and gold.

Total holdings in ETFs backed by bullion

Gold miners have enjoying strong tailwinds from the continued rally in bullion prices. Adding to this a potential rotation out of under-pressure momentum stocks

In today's podcast we look at some small divergences that could spell near term relief on risk sentiment, even if there is a steep hill to climb to significantly reverse this market rise. We also discuss gold trading at $3,000 per ounce and whether silver is set for brisk and large rally higher if it can break above the 35+ dollar per ounce level. Thoughts on crude oil, copper, a great set of links for further reading and much more also on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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Gold surges past USD 3,000 as haven demand grows

Ole Hansen

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Gold surges past USD 3,000 as haven demand grows

Ole Hansen

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