Weekly market recap & what's ahead - 7 April 2025

Weekly market recap & what's ahead - 7 April 2025

Macro 3 minutes to read
Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Weekly Market Recap & What's Ahead

7 April 2025 (Week of 31 March to 4 April 2025)


Key Takeaways

  • Equities faced severe declines following Trump’s tariff announcements; tech and auto sectors hardest hit.
  • Volatility spiked sharply with VIX reaching 45.31 amid escalating recession fears.
  • Bitcoin retreated below $80k after a volatile week for digital assets.
  • Bonds rallied strongly as investors fled to safety throughout the week.
  • Commodities slumped broadly on recession fears and tariff impacts.
  • JPY and CHF strengthened notably; USD saw initial weakness but partly stabilized by week-end.


Market Recap

Equities

Markets began the week cautiously, rising slightly on March 31 as investors hoped for tariff relief. However, optimism quickly faded on April 2 as President Trump’s extensive tariffs were unveiled, triggering a major global sell-off. On April 3, the S&P 500 plunged -4.84%, Nasdaq -5.41%, and Dow -3.98%, led by tech declines such as Apple (-9.2%) and Nvidia (-7.8%). Selling intensified further on April 4, with the S&P 500 dropping an additional -5.97%, erasing over 320 points amid recession fears. European equities mirrored declines, notably on April 3 with the DAX (-3.0%) and CAC 40 (-3.3%), particularly hitting autos and banks. Asian markets also slumped, with Japan’s Nikkei down -8.7% by week's end.

Volatility

Market volatility initially rose moderately early in the week but escalated sharply after Trump's April 2 tariff announcement. The VIX surged, peaking at 45.31 (+50.93%) on April 4, its highest since the early COVID pandemic. Short-term volatility also spiked dramatically, with VIX1D reaching 81.89 (+142.06%), reflecting extreme short-term market anxiety. Elevated volatility persisted through the end of the week, suggesting ongoing market uncertainty.

Digital Assets

Cryptocurrencies started the week with minor gains but turned volatile after tariff announcements. Bitcoin initially edged up on March 31, reaching around $83,272, but reversed sharply by April 4 to settle at $75,699 (-3.43%). Ethereum and XRP saw similar declines, dropping to $1,506 (-4.64%) and (-11.70%), respectively. Crypto stocks faced mixed outcomes amid broader market pressures, reflecting investor caution.

Fixed Income

Bond markets began the week relatively steady but rallied significantly following the tariff-induced equity sell-off. The US 2-year Treasury yield dropped notably, ending the week down 22 basis points at 3.64%, signaling increased expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts. Japanese bond yields similarly fell sharply amid heightened recession concerns, underscoring broader global flight-to-safety.

Commodities

Commodity markets initially showed resilience early in the week, but faced a sharp downturn post-tariff announcements. Copper experienced significant volatility, briefly dropping 7% amid growing recession fears. WTI crude also slumped dramatically below $60/barrel before stabilizing modestly. Gold traded steadily near $3,100, supported by safe-haven demand, while silver faced sharp declines, erasing year-to-date gains due to recession fears.

Currencies

Currency markets were notably volatile throughout the week, particularly after tariff announcements. Safe havens CHF and JPY strengthened significantly; USDJPY briefly dipped below 145.00 on April 4. Pro-cyclical currencies, including AUD and CAD, initially weakened substantially but partially recovered towards week-end as markets adjusted to ongoing uncertainty.


Looking Ahead (7 to 11 April 2025)

Markets face a crucial week with several major economic indicators and policy events:

  • US and Chinese tariffs are scheduled to take effect on April 9 and 10, respectively, heightening fears of escalating global trade tensions.
  • US CPI data for March will be released on April 10, closely watched as an indicator for inflationary pressures amid tariff-induced market volatility.
  • Fed meeting minutes from the March FOMC meeting on April 9 will provide insights into policymakers' views on the economy, inflation risks, and potential rate cuts.
  • Earnings season kicks off with critical reports from leading financial institutions including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock on April 11, setting the tone for investor sentiment and market direction.
  • Consumer sentiment data due April 11 and consumer credit reports on April 7 will shed light on consumer resilience amid escalating economic uncertainty.
  • Additional key data includes the Producer Price Index (April 11), weekly jobless claims (April 10), and insights from speeches by Fed officials, which could further shape market expectations.

Related Research

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.


Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.