警告を発する日本円 - Japanese Yen is throwing a warning

※本レポート内日本語は、ご参考情報として原文（英語）を機械翻訳したものです。

FRB（連邦準備制度理事会）による緩和期待の後退が織り込まれ、初期のドル高が一段落したため、FX市場はかなり静かな週となりました。しかし、ボラティリティが低ければ、キャリーも高くなります。このため、今週はスイスフランと日本円がアンダーパフォーマーとなった可能性がありますが、これらの動きを下支えした要因は他にもあります。

日銀の内田眞一副総裁が昨日、日本のマイナス金利政策の終了は、積極的な利上げサイクルの開始ではなく、一過性のものである可能性が高いと発言したことを受け、米ドル円は149円台半ばまで上昇。内田副総裁は、全体的に緩和的な状況は維持され、マイナス金利政策終了後の措置は「緩やかなペース」で行われると発言。これは私たちが以前主張したことであり、日銀の引き締めが緩やかで小幅なものになることを示唆し続けています。

しかし、円の過剰反応は、市場がまだ日銀の引き締めを期待している可能性があり、後で失望するかもしれないという警告のサインです。2023年11月のピーク以降、円ショートが大きくカバーしていることから、これは明らかにポジショニングの観点からのものです。確かに、昨日の円安は国債利回りの上昇によって増幅された可能性もありますが、日銀の引き締め期待にもかかわらず、円は低ボラティリティ環境におけるキャリートレードの重要な資金調達通貨であり続けると引き続き考えています。

当社のテクニカル・ストラテジストは、米ドル円の148.80のレジスタンスをブレイクすれば、152への扉が開かれる可能性があると述べていますが、介入リスクは150より上で発生する可能性が高いとしています。また、イスラエルとハマスの停戦に進展がなく、原油価格が上昇し、ブレント原油が80ドル/バレルを超える中、カナダドル円も週末に向けて注目されるかもしれません。

Summary:  Yen’s slide to fresh YTD lows is a reminder of how market has potentially overpriced a hawkish Bank of Japan outcome. Comments from Deputy Governor Uchida brought the focus back to BOJ’s limits to tighten policy, and why JPY could remain a key funder in carry trades amid low volatility environments. Geopolitics and higher oil prices could also weigh on JPY, although we are in intervention-threat zone that could mean a reversal, but not a recovery.

It’s been a rather quiet week in FX markets after some early dollar strength subsided with much of the Fed pushback to easing expectations priced in. But when volatility is low, carry runs high. This could have made CHF and JPY as the underperformers for this week so far, but there were some other factors that underpinned those moves as well.

USDJPY rallied back to mid-149 levels after BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said yesterday that termination of the negative interest rate policy in Japan would likely be one-off, instead of the start of an aggressive rate hiking cycle. He said that overall accommodative conditions will be maintained and any actions post-NIRP exit would occur at a "gradual pace". This is something we argued earlier, and continues to suggest that any BOJ tightening will be gradual and modest.

However, yen’s overreaction is a warning sign that market may still be expecting a steeper tightening from the BOJ and may be disappointed later. This is clearly from a positioning standpoint, with yen shorts having been covering significantly since the peak in November 2023. Certainly, yen’s weakness yesterday could also have been amplified by the move higher in Treasury yields, but we continue to believe that yen will remain a key funding currency for carry trades in low volatility environments despite BOJ tightening expectations.

Our technical strategist says that the break of 148.80 resistance in USDJPY could open the doors to 152, but intervention risks are likely to come in the way above 150. This means it may be better to look at yen crosses, where AUDJPY and EURJPY remain quite interesting, but CADJPY may be in focus as well going into the weekend amid gains in oil prices and Brent crude rising above $80/barrel on lack of progress on Israel-Hamas ceasefire.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) benefits from higher oil prices as Canada is a key oil exporter, while Japan being a key energy importer means JPY suffers. CADJPY is knocking at 111 level and Sept high was at 111.17. If broken, this could open the door to 115. Canada’s January employment data is out today and expected to come in stronger at 15k vs. 0.1k in December which may mean Bank of Canada could have room to avoid an immediate pivot.

NZDJPY also in focus after a major bank said that RBNZ could hike twice more. This made AUDNZD break lower to the 1.06 handle. NZDJPY surged to its highest levels since 2014, nearing 91.50, and a break above will bring 94 in focus.

US CPI revisions will also be key to watch today. Any downside revisions may have limited market impact, given Powell is looking for “more” good data, not necessarily “better” data. But upward revisions would add to the pushback message and bring gains in the USD, while impacting JPY, EUR and gold negatively.