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Tariff-related recession fears ignite widespread commodities selloff
Commodities 5 minutes to read
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
US President Trump has imposed the steepest and harshest American tariffs in a century on all its major counterparts, sparking threats of retaliation and a broad selloff around the world on concerns that a global trade war on this scale and magnitude will drive an economic slowdown—not least in the US, where inflation forecasts have spiked, and sentiment among consumers and businesses has fallen sharply during the past couple of months.
There is a general understanding of why Trump wants to reshape the global economy, with his primary goal being the reversal of a two-decade trend of US companies moving production overseas to capitalise on cheaper labour costs, which, in turn, has boosted their stock prices but contributed to domestic job losses and economic stagnation in certain sectors and parts of the nation. This shift has had significant impacts on American manufacturing and the broader economy, as well as its ability to be self-sufficient in key materials.
Economic implications: short-term pain, long-term uncertainty
However, it is crucial to recognise that reversing such long-standing trends is a complex and time-consuming process. It cannot be achieved overnight—let alone in four years—and will inevitably involve trade-offs and temporary setbacks for both the US and its trading partners. What Trump delivered on this so-called "Liberation Day" was an economic war declaration likely to cause chaos across global supply chains, while in the short term raising the risk of an economic fallout, hurting demand for key commodities, with energy and industrial metals being the sectors most at risk. Financial markets responded strongly to the tariff announcement, with the USD, equity markets, and US Treasury yields all seeing sharp declines.
Energy and industrial metals among the hardest hit
Commodities suffered broad declines, with the Bloomberg Commodities Index trading down around 1.2% since Monday, with losses led by the growth- and demand-dependent sectors of energy and industrial metals. At this stage, however, the weakness has not triggered any major technical breakdown, potentially limiting selling pressures from momentum-focused traders. In addition, the USD trades sharply lower, and together with rising inflation expectations, the risk of a major correction seems limited at this stage.
Metals tariffs were largely left unchanged, with steel and aluminium at 25%, and no tariff yet on copper while the Section 232 investigation continues. Prices nevertheless fell, with growth risks weighing on prices—not least in China, the world’s top exporter and consumer of raw materials—as it faces tariffs of at least 54%, with the threat of another 25% on top for buying Venezuelan oil.
HG copper futures in New York briefly slumped to USD 4.825 before stabilising around USD 4.935, with the tariff-related premium over LME prices in London still elevated around 13%, highlighting a market where trades—as opposed to a deflated premium in gold and silver—still expect tariffs to be introduced. However, uncertainty about the level of tariffs will continue to create a great deal of volatility in the COMEX-LME spread.
Gold’s haven credentials on display despite deleveraging risks
Gold trades a tad softer on the day after briefly hitting a fresh record high overnight at USD 3,167—a move that was supported by geopolitical and economic tensions, as well as the weaker USD and rising inflation expectations driving down US real yields. However, while these supportive factors will continue to underpin bullion prices, a current rush to deleverage amid spiking volatility will also be felt in gold—not least given its recent record run of gains. What will determine the depth of a potential correction hinges on the investor base, and a battle between short-term, technical-focused traders and long-term accumulators from real money allocators, high-net-worth individuals, and central banks. Given how far gold has travelled in the past three months, a correction to USD 3,000—let alone USD 2,960—would not trigger any major alarm bells.
Silver slump as COMEX tariff premium evaporates
Silver and platinum, two semi-industrial metals, have both suffered sharp corrections once again as wrong-footed longs head for the exit. The weakness has been led by selling in the New York futures market after a fact sheet distributed by the White House stated that bullion (gold) and "other certain minerals that are not available in the United States" should not be subject to reciprocal tariffs. With silver and platinum imports accounting for the bulk of US consumption, traders concluded that these two metals would not be impacted, and with that, the tariff premium on futures prices in New York compared with spot prices in London has seen a sharp contraction. A 51% year-to-date increase in silver flows to COMEX-monitored vaults now faces the risk of a partial reversal, potentially adding supply to a market already weakened by short-term recession concerns.
Agricultural commodity slump led by cotton
Cotton futures fell 4.4% on the opening—the maximum daily move allowed by the exchange—following the announcement of US tariffs. The fibre is often used as a barometer of global growth because its demand is closely linked to the health of the global economy, with consumers often cutting back on clothing during an economic downturn. With losses seen across the grains and soybean sectors in anticipation of a reaction from China, a major buyer of both crops, adverse weather conditions in Brazil are once again supporting Arabica coffee, while cocoa has surged due to expectations of a smaller-than-expected mid-crop harvest in West Africa.
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