Forget MAGA—this is Europe’s moment to make itself great and independent again!

Forget MAGA—this is Europe’s moment to make itself great and independent again!

Jacob Falkencrone

Global Head of Investment Strategy

Key points:

  • Europe is undergoing a structural shift toward strategic independence, driven by deglobalisation, rising defence spending, and a renewed focus on domestic resilience.
  • This transformation is creating long-term investment opportunities in sectors like defence, energy, infrastructure, and technology, all backed by strong political and fiscal momentum.
  • A basket of European stocks aligned with this theme offers investors a way to gain targeted exposure to the companies best positioned to benefit (see the stock list at the end of the article and the shortlist here).
  • Key risks include political fragmentation, slow policy execution, and stretched valuations—especially in defence stocks that have already seen significant gains.

Europe is rewriting the rules of its economic playbook. From Brussels to Berlin, a remarkable shift is underway—a push to build an independent, resilient, and self-sufficient economy. For investors, this isn’t just another trend to watch from afar; it's a compelling opportunity unfolding right before our eyes.

For decades, Europe was content to rely heavily on partners like the United States and China, but recent shocks from the pandemic, supply chain chaos, the war in Ukraine and strategic realignments have dramatically shaken things up. Suddenly, the buzzword across the continent is "European independence," and it's not just political talk—it's a powerful new investment theme that's beginning to catch fire.

“Sparked by the seismic shock of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and heightened tensions with the US and China, Europe has decided it's time to rely less on global superpowers and more on its own resources.”

But what exactly does "European independence" mean for the everyday investor, and why should you care? Simply put, it’s about Europe building resilience by relying less on others and more on itself. From defence and energy to tech and consumer goods, this new push for strategic autonomy offers exciting opportunities for investors who are ready to jump aboard early.

“This "European independence" is about taking control—control over defence, control over technology, and critically, control over energy. It's a call to build resilience, similar to learning self-defence in a turbulent neighbourhood.”

Why now? Europe's moment of truth

Think of Europe's economy like a household: if your house was overly dependent on your neighbour for essentials like energy, technology, and security, you'd probably feel vulnerable. Now imagine your neighbour gets unpredictable or aggressive. Suddenly, you'd want to get your own generator, install your own security system, and grow your own vegetables in the garden—fast.

That's pretty much Europe's mindset today. The Russia-Ukraine war was the wake-up call Europe couldn't ignore. Countries like Germany and France are ramping up military spending significantly, shaking off decades of reliance on US military protection. The European Union itself just introduced a EUR 150 billion programme of loans encouraging member countries to buy European-made military equipment instead of American. Ursula von der Leyen, the EU Commission President, has called on Europe to use these loans to build its own defence industry rather than sending money abroad.

Europe's new EUR 150 billion defence loan program explicitly demands that member countries purchase military equipment made in Europe. No more outsourcing security; Europe is arming itself, both literally and economically.

But it's not just about military hardware. Europe's push for independence spans energy security, tech innovation, and local manufacturing too. After feeling the pain of disrupted supply chains and energy shortages, Europe wants its own batteries, its own semiconductors, and its own green energy infrastructure.

Big plans from big players: Germany leads the charge

Germany is playing a starring role, committing billions to stimulate Europe's broader economy, boost infrastructure, and promote innovation. This German fiscal stimulus doesn't only help Germany—it ripples out positively to countries across the entire continent. Picture Germany as Europe's locomotive, pulling along economies from Italy to Scandinavia. Investors who recognise this momentum could stand to gain.

Why it’s a big deal for investors

This shift toward independence isn't temporary—it represents a structural change that could power long-term economic growth. For retail investors, that means opportunities abound in sectors expected to benefit from European self-reliance.

Take renewable energy. Europe urgently needs to wean itself off imported fossil fuels, especially given the tense relationship with Russia. Companies that produce wind turbines, solar panels, and energy storage solutions are lining up for significant growth, backed by strong political support and billions of euros in public funding.

Technology and digital infrastructure is another sweet spot. Europe doesn't want its digital future reliant on Chinese or American technology. Expect substantial investment in home-grown solutions like semiconductors, cybersecurity, and cloud services, providing an attractive runway for tech-savvy investors.

“This isn’t just about reshuffling trade routes—it’s about reshaping Europe’s economic backbone for the next decade.”

Then there’s defence—traditionally dominated by US contractors. European governments are now determined to channel funds into local aerospace and military technology firms, creating fresh opportunities for investors in home-grown defence companies benefiting from multibillion-euro government contracts.

Infrastructure, too, is set for a significant boost. With Germany and others pouring billions into roads, bridges, communications networks, and green infrastructure projects, firms specialising in construction, engineering, and logistics stand to benefit considerably from this renewed spending spree.

Finally, European consumers and governments alike are increasingly favouring domestic brands. It’s economic patriotism with a practical edge. Companies producing products closer to home—from sportswear to food—stand to capture new market share as shoppers pivot toward brands that carry the 'Made in Europe' stamp of confidence.

Balancing excitement with reality: risks to watch

Of course, investing always carries risks, and Europe's independence journey isn't without hurdles. A major risk is that large-scale transitions like these take years to materialise. Costs can mount, regulations can change, and geopolitical shifts can upend the best-laid plans.

Higher defence spending and reshoring production also mean increased government spending and potentially higher debt levels, particularly in already indebted countries. Europe's drive to localise industries previously dominated by efficient global supply chains could lead to higher consumer prices, at least initially. Investors should also keep in mind that some companies—especially in defence—have already seen strong rallies. With prices now elevated and valuations high, future returns might moderate as initial excitement levels off.

There’s also the question of unity. European countries might not always agree on how far or fast to move toward independence. Differences among EU member states could delay initiatives or water down ambitions.

What investors could do

For retail investors, the "European independence" theme offers compelling long-term prospects, but success lies in balancing enthusiasm with patience and careful stock selection. Look to companies with strong European market positions, proven innovation capability, and alignment with sectors receiving major policy backing. Defence, security, renewable energy, tech innovation, infrastructure, and consumer brands with deep European roots look particularly attractive right now.

To help investors navigate this opportunity, we've selected a list of stocks (see the list below) from sectors best positioned to benefit directly from Europe’s shift toward independence. These companies have been chosen based on their sector exposure, market cap, analyst consensus ratings, and their strategic alignment with the theme, providing a valuable starting point for investors looking to position themselves smartly.

The European independence theme isn't about short-term bets or trading headlines—it's about recognising a historic structural shift and positioning your investments to ride the wave. Europe's independence push has staying power, offering the potential for sustained growth.

Ultimately, the story of Europe today is one of resilience and reinvention. Investors who understand this evolving landscape and act accordingly could be setting themselves up nicely for years to come. Europe is boldly striking out on its own path.

Table 1: European independence – stock watchlist

Defence and aerospace

Airbus

A major European aerospace player poised for local defence and space contracts, strengthening Europe’s autonomy in aviation and military tech.

Safran

Delivers critical aviation systems, fitting Europe's drive to localize aerospace supply chains and reduce reliance on non-European components.

Rolls-Royce

Produces engines and propulsion systems, well placed as EU nations boost domestic aerospace manufacturing and defence budgets.

Rheinmetall

Supplies vehicles and ammunition, primed for higher EU defence spending and localized production of military hardware.

Thales

Specializes in defence electronics and cybersecurity, gaining as Europe prioritizes secure, homegrown tech solutions.

BAE Systems

Develops defence platforms integral to Europe’s rearmament efforts, benefitting from increased local procurement.

Leonardo

Offers advanced aerospace and military tech, capturing rising demand for European-made defence equipment.

Infrastructure construction, building, engineering and transportation

Vinci

Builds and manages infrastructure, standing to gain from rising European spending on transport, energy, and defence projects.

Ferrovial

Operates and develops critical infrastructure, fitting Europe’s need for self-reliant transport and energy systems.

Hochtief

Focused on building strategic facilities, capturing EU investment in domestic infrastructure and defence-related projects.

Eiffage

Constructs large-scale facilities, benefiting from EU-funded military and infrastructure programs that favour local contractors.

SPIE

Offers engineering services in energy and telecom, profiting as Europe modernizes local infrastructure and secures essential networks.

DHL

A logistics leader poised to benefit from Germany’s fiscal expansion, stronger European trade, and rising demand for regional supply chains, boosting shipment volumes in its core TDI service

Technology

SAP

Provides enterprise software critical to Europe's digital sovereignty and data security initiatives.

ASML

Enables Europe’s chip sovereignty with essential lithography machines, benefitting from heavy EU investment in semiconductor manufacturing.

Infineon Technologies

Produces power chips vital for Europe’s green and EV sectors, gaining from the shift to local semiconductor production.

Nokia

Offers 5G and IoT infrastructure, crucial to Europe’s ambition for a robust, non-foreign telecom ecosystem.

Materials

Air Liquide

Supplies industrial gases vital for Europe’s reindustrialization, aided by nearshoring of advanced manufacturing and energy projects.

Compagnie de Saint Gobain

Provides building materials integral to Europe’s infrastructure and green renovation drive, supported by local procurement.

BASF

Innovates in sustainable chemicals for the EU’s decarbonization agenda and could benefit if cheaper energy returns, given high EMEA energy exposure.

Sika

Produces specialty chemicals for construction, profiting from local infrastructure expansion and eco-friendly building mandates.

Heidelberg Materials

Supplies cement and aggregates, aligned with Europe’s push for climate-resilient, domestically sourced construction materials.

Arcelormittal

Major steel producer reinforcing Europe’s industrial base, benefiting from nearshoring and local procurement.

Utilities and energy

Enel

Major utility championing Europe’s transition to renewable generation and grid modernization.

Engie

Develops clean energy projects, fitting the EU’s push for local production and reduced fossil fuel reliance.

RWE

Transitioning from fossil fuels to renewables, supporting the EU’s target of greater energy autonomy and sustainability.

Vestas

A global wind energy leader, Vestas is set to benefit from Europe’s push for energy independence and massive investment in renewables.

Consumer goods

Volkswagen

Volkswagen's EV and battery investments align with reshoring trends, while spare capacity could support military production. It may also gain market share from Tesla.

Adidas

Focuses on local production in Europe, capturing market share as consumers shift from non-EU brands like Nike or New Balance to domestic footwear/apparel.

Nestle

Emphasizes sustainable, locally sourced food products, matching Europe’s eco-friendly and nearshoring preferences.

Unilever

Aligns with Europe’s move toward locally produced, eco-friendly goods, leveraging strong brand recognition in personal care and food.

Note: The stock list provided is for informational and inspirational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or specific recommendations. Investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions. The companies included have been selected based on their sector alignment, market capitalisation, and Bloomberg analyst consensus scores (minimum 3.5 out of 5), indicating strong market confidence. A qualitative assessment was also applied to ensure strategic relevance to key sectors underpinning the European independence theme—such as defence, energy, infrastructure, and technology. (As of 19 March 2025.)

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